Super Bowl Betting Trends: What Dimers early predictions say about these results in Super Bowl LX

Super Bowl betting is often where narratives, numbers, and history collide, and Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is shaping up as a perfect example.

Game lines, NFL player props and more all have their own betting appeal in the Super Bowl, with bettors often looking to past results to gauge what might happen in the latest edition, but what's past is not always a picture of what is to come.

That's where the Dimers model comes in, so we can use a data-driven approach to compare advanced NFL predictions against these historical trends to see which may come to fruition in the Big Game, and which are just noise.

Seahawks vs. Patriots Matchup Overview:

Teams: Seahawks vs. Patriots

Date: Sunday, February 8, 2026

Time: 6:30 PM ET

Venue: Levi's Stadium

Dimers Super Bowl 60 Predictions vs. Historical Trends

First, let's look at the most basic results: the spread, total and moneyline in Super Bowl history.

The Spread

Over the past 15 Super Bowls, the underdogs are 10-5 against the spread.

More recently, underdogs have covered in five straight, all but one of them opening at a shorter line than Super Bowl 60's +3.5 point line (now 4.5).

Even when the favorites win, they struggle to cover and the Dimers model points to an early 60.3% probability for New England to cover the current +4.5-point spread.

A favorite hasn't covered a pre-game spread of 4 or more points since Colts (-7) vs. Bears in Super Bowl 41.

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The Total

When it comes to the over or under, recent trends lean slightly under at a record of 9-6.

This year's opening total of 45.5 is the lowest in a Super Bowl since Denver vs. Carolina in Super Bowl 50.

Prior to Broncos-Panthers, the previous five Super Bowls witha total set under 50 all went over. Since then, only four have been set under 50, going 2-2.

The Dimers model currently projects a 53.2% probability to the over 45.5 in Super Bowl 60.

Underdogs vs. Favorites

Don't count out the underdogs - they've won three straight Super Bowls.

Since 2011, underdogs have won 10 of 15 and 3 of 4 when priced at +4 points or longer.

The Dimers model gives New England a 38.0% probability of upsetting Seattle for fair odds of +160 or better.

Team and Player Performance Trends

Beyond game results, there are plenty of player and team-level trends that are coming into play in the latest edition of the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl Rematch

In the history of the Super Bowl, there have been 9 pairs of teams facing off more than once, with only the Cowboys and Steelers meeting three times (Steelers won 2 of 3).

Out of the teams that faced off twice, three managed to split the series: Washington vs. Miami. New England vs. Philadelphia and Kansas City vs. Philadelphia.

The Patriots famously won Super Bowl 49 vs. the Seahawks on a late-game interception by Malcom Butler in the end zone.

DVOA Dominance

One of the strongest historical indicators comes from elite efficiency (no surprise there).

Seattle enters Super Bowl 60 as a rare DVOA juggernaut, leading the NFL in both total and defensive DVOA.

Only five teams have pulled off that feat in the last 40 years, and four went on to win the Super Bowl by an average margin of 28 points.

Dimers’ model heavily rewards teams that dominate on both sides of the ball, and that historical profile aligns closely with its confidence in Seattle’s overall performance outlook rather than a narrow, coin-flip result.

Conference Championship Carryover

Recent momentum has also mattered, especially when looking at the spread.

Teams that fail to cover in the Conference Championship game are just 4-10 straight up and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since the merger.

New England falls directly into that bucket after failing to cover as favorites in the AFC Championship (predicted by the Dimers model), while Seattle covered the -2.5 in the NFC title game with a four-point victory, but could be in line to break the trend according to our predictions.

Little Luck for Longshots

New England is just the fourth team in 50 years to reach the Super Bowl after opening at 80-1 (+8000) or longer preseason odds.

Only the 1999 Rams converted that opportunity into a title.

Rare Company at Wide Receiver

One trend that strongly favors Seattle historically is at wide receiver.

Seahawks WR and Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes just the fourth player to lead the NFL in receiving yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season, Drew Pearson (1977), Jerry Rice (1989, 1994) and his now teammate, Cooper Kupp (2021).

The previous three teams went 4-0 straight up, winning each time.

Jaxon-Smith Njigba projects for 97.1 yards and a 45.9% touchdown probability in Super Bowl 60 as identified by our NFL Projections Hub.

Cooper Kupp went on to win Super Bowl MVP, the 8th time a receiver has won in NFL history. JSN is +600 to win Super Bowl 60 MVP.

Bottom Line

Super Bowl 60 ultimately sits at the crossroads of these trends and the unpredictable nature of the game.

The underdog trend is loud, particularly in recent years, and while it is the less likely of the two outcomes, carries notable Dimers model value.

Whether history repeats itself or resets may define not just the outcome, but the betting narrative of Super Bowl 60 itself.

Dimers' NFL betting resources for the 2025-26 season

• NFL Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every round of the playoffs
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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