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Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction, odds, MLS picks [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes predictions for MLS Saturday.
MLS action continues on Saturday at 8:30 PM ET as San Jose locks horns with Sporting KC at .
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLS model predicts San Jose as the most likely winner of the Sporting KC vs. San Jose game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS matchup between Sporting KC and San Jose, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 28.7% chance of Sporting KC winning, a 49.4% chance for San Jose, and a 21.9% chance of a draw.
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Sporting KC | San Jose | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +300 | -135 | +320 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sporting KC | +300 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sporting KC to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Correct score predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SKC 1-1 SJE | 9.4% |
| SKC 1-2 SJE | 9.2% |
| SKC 2-1 SJE | 6.8% |
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Sporting KC and San Jose is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Sporting KC has a 28.7% win probability on Saturday, San Jose has a 49.4% win probability, and there is a 21.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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