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Soccer picks and predictions: Best MLS bets and parlay on Saturday, April 11
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The MLS returns to action this weekend and we've used the Dimers data to find the best value results across all matches.
Major League Soccer returns on Saturday, April 11 and Dimers' MLS predictions are ready for a loaded slate of 13 matches, from our best MLS bets and predicted scorelines for every match, to our best bets to win the MLS Cup.
All season long, every week, Dimers’ data-driven algorithms simulate every MLS contest thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form, and player-level data to predict the moneyline, draw and over/under probabilities, as well as the precise likelihood of each individual final score, all now featured in the Dimers App, where you can unlock a three-day free trial of Dimers Pro.
For the Saturday, April 11 MLS slate, these mispriced bets from the Dimers model focus on three matches:
⚽ New England vs. D.C. United
⚽ Houston vs. Colorado
⚽ St. Louis City vs. Dallas
Here is why the data points toward these specific outcomes for the upcoming fixtures.
MLS best bets and predictions for Saturday, April 11
Bet: New England Revolution to win vs. D.C. United (-107)
Our highest probability bet out of these three picks comes in New England vs. D.C. United at 7:30 PM ET in Gillette Stadium.
The data case: New England gets a 59% probability to win over D.C., one of the highest outright win probabilities on the day, but it comes with a better price than the other games with similar projections.
The supporting argument: Neither team has put together a strong campaign so far this season, sitting 8th and 9th in the standings, but DC has struggled to put together complete games. With just 4 goals through 6 matches, DC is tied with last-place Philadelphia for the worst offense in the league.
Our full ML predictions and best bet for D.C. vs. New England as seen in the Dimers App.
New England hasn't fared much better overall as far as results, but the bulk of their scoring came in 2 matches at home where they will be tonight, capitalizing on poor defenses and putting up 6 and 3 goals vs. Cincinnati and Montreal. The Dimers model gives them more than 3x the chance to win than D.C. and less than a 25% chance of a draw.
A 2-0 New England victory (11%) is the correct score that most aligns with our near 50/50 split on the total and ML probability as well.
Dallas FC to win vs. St. Louis City (+105)
We move to Texas with another strong moneyline probability and a high edge play from the Dimers model.
The data case: Dallas FC host St. Louis City on Saturday night with a 53.6% probability to win, a significant advantage over both our probability for a draw (22.4%) and a St. Louis upset (24.0%).
The supporting argument: Hosting is good news for Dallas, who are on a 9-match home win streak, the third-longest active streak in MLS, and head-to-head have shut out St. Louis in three home matches in their history.
St. Louis have mustered just one victory through six matches, scoring less than one goal per match, while Dallas scored 3+ goals in 4 of their 6 contests so far, led by MLS's top scorer Petar Musa.
Aligning those trends with our 60% probability to the over and nearly 54% win probability for Dallas, and a 2-1 (10%) correct score looks like it could be in play as well.
MORE: Dallas vs. St. Louis MLS predictions
Colorado Rapids to win vs. Houston Dynamo (+135)
The data case: For our final play, we're getting both the best odds and highest edge from the Dimers model, over an 11% advantage compared to the sportsbook odds in Colorado vs. Houston.
The supporting argument: Colorado enters this game off one of the wildest results of the year, a game in which Colorado led 2-0 before losing 3-2 to Toronto in a game in which three plays saw red cards.
The Dimers model predicts Colorado to bounce back with a 53.7% win probability over Houston, but at odds of +135, with a fair price at -115, giving us that big 11% edge. We also predict a number of goals with a 57% probability to the over of 2.5, which has hit in 4 straight for Colorado, including two matches in which they cleared that total on their own.
Houston have dropped back-to-back matches, including one in which they allowed 4+ goals to FC Dallas, and have been shut out twice this season.
Our model again points to a 2-1 victory (10%) as the most likely result in a victory for Colorado.
MORE: Colorado vs. Houston MLS predictions
MLS parlay at +741 odds
If you're willing to invite a little more risk, consider playing these three picks as a parlay at +741 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, or whichever book gives you the best odds for this parlay.
| Bet | Win % | DraftKings Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New England to win | 59% | -115 |
| Dallas to win | 54% | +100 |
| Colorado to win | 54% | +125 |
How Dimers finds the edge
By analyzing how a team performs in unique situations, against specific tactical setups, and even individual player performance levels, the Dimers algorithm identifies value where the sportsbooks see a toss-up, or even predict the opposite.
Looking for more Moneyline bets and correct score predictions? Download the Dimers App for predictions in a number of professional soccer leagues, including the 2026 World Cup, MLS, Premier League, La Liga and more.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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