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San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction, odds, MLS picks [2/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get San Jose Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas City predictions for MLS Saturday.
San Jose will square off with Sporting KC in MLS action at PayPal Park on Saturday, beginning at 10:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLS model predicts San Jose as the most likely winner of the San Jose vs. Sporting KC game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLS matchup between San Jose and Sporting KC 10,000 times as part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 59.4% chance of San Jose winning, a 21.0% chance for Sporting KC, and a 19.6% chance of a draw.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | San Jose | Sporting KC | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -135 | +300 | +340 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose | -135 |
According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is San Jose to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City: Correct score predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 San Jose win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SJE 2-1 SKC | 9.4% |
| SJE 1-1 SKC | 8.2% |
| SJE 3-1 SKC | 7.2% |
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between San Jose and Sporting KC in MLS at PayPal Park is scheduled to commence at 10:30 PM ET.
- Who: San Jose Earthquakes vs. Sporting Kansas City
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
- Venue: PayPal Park
Conclusion
According to our computer model, San Jose has a 59.4% win probability on Saturday, Sporting KC has a 21.0% win probability, and there is a 19.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate San Jose vs. Sporting KC insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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