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Spurs vs. Rockets prediction: Houston to win, Kevin Durant projected for big game in Wednesday's NBA matchup [1/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets predictions for NBA Wednesday.
The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet in NBA action at Toyota Center on Wednesday, with tipoff at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Rockets game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Rockets lineup will feature players like Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, while the Spurs will look to Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Rockets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Rockets 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Rockets a 57% chance of defeating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 110-108.
According to our model, the Spurs (+2.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 219.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Spurs vs. Rockets odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | o219.5 (-115) | u219.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Rockets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs +2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -142 |
| Total | Under 219.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs +2.5 at the spread.
Spurs vs. Rockets player props
NBA player props are an exciting way to wager on Wednesday's San Antonio vs. Houston matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Toyota Center.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kevin Durant is projected to have 26 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists for the Rockets.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 23 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 37 |
| Stephon Castle | 16 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 38 |
| Keldon Johnson | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| Devin Vassell | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
Rockets prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Rockets:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 26 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 45 |
| Alperen Sengun | 19 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 47 |
| Amen Thompson | 17 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 41 |
| Jabari Smith | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Tari Eason | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
Spurs vs. Rockets game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Rockets and Spurs at Toyota Center is scheduled to start at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets
- Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Toyota Center
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs on Wednesday, with Victor Wembanyama projected for a game-high 49 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Rockets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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