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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/28.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, January 28, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.8% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 16.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.9% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.8% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.5% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.3% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 14.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.7% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.8% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.7% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.7% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 3.8% | +850 | 14.3% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 3.5% | +1100 | 11.9% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 2.5% | +1000 | 11.6% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 1.6% | +950 | 11.1% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.3% | +800 | 12.4% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 1.2% | +900 | 11.2% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.0% | +800 | 12.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, January 28, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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