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Spurs vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Rockets NBA game on January 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
111
99
Jan 29, 2:30AM Toyota Center
Jan 29, 2:30AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 26 | 65 | 20 | 0 | 111 |
Rockets | 36 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 99 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 26 | 65 | 20 | 0 | 111 |
Rockets | 36 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 99 |
Q4 00:10 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:08 Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:18 Alperen Sengun misses two point driving hook shot
Q4 1:31 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:32 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:54 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:09 Dylan Harper misses three point stepback jump shot
Q4 2:23 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Keldon Johnson makes two point jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)
Q4 2:44 Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
111-99
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson personal foul (Clint Capela draws the foul)
Rockets offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Carter Bryant, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo, Dylan Harper)
Clint Capela misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-99
Alperen Sengun shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-99
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Clint Capela, Jae'Sean Tate, Dorian Finney-Smith, Aaron Holiday)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-99
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point driving hook shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
111-99
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jump ball. (Kevin Durant gains possession)
Victor Wembanyama turnover (lost ball) (Amen Thompson steals)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Dylan Harper misses three point stepback jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets 60 second timeout
+2
Keldon Johnson makes two point jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)
111-99
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
111-99
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot
111-99
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
111-99
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
111-99
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving reverse layup (Kevin Durant assists)
107-96
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
111-99
Stephon Castle shooting foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
Spurs 60 second timeout
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-99
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
91-86
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
107-96
Rockets turnover (Victor Wembanyama steals)
Spurs turnover (Amen Thompson steals)
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama turnover (Tari Eason steals)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses two point tip layup
Rockets defensive rebound
Rockets offensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama blocks Kevin Durant's two point pullup jump shot
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Rockets turnover (shot clock violation)
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Tari Eason misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Harrison Barnes personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-86
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
111-99
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson)
Kevin Durant personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
107-96
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
107-96
Rockets personal foul
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Rockets 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
91-86
Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-99
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point floating jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses three point running jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama blocks Amen Thompson's two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets offensive rebound
Reed Sheppard offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Spurs violation
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Amen Thompson blocks Victor Wembanyama's two point putback layup
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Julian Champagnie misses three point running jump shot
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Dorian Finney-Smith shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
86-86
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell)
De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
84-86
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
84-84
Dylan Harper personal foul (Kevin Durant draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-86
+3
De'Aaron Fox makes three point pullup jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
86-86
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
84-84
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-99
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
Spurs turnover
+2
Reed Sheppard makes two point jump shot
79-80
Devin Vassell misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets defensive rebound
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
84-84
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point jump shot
Reed Sheppard turnover
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
+2
Keldon Johnson makes two point jump shot
74-78
Dorian Finney-Smith turnover (Devin Vassell steals)
Dorian Finney-Smith shooting foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-86
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
Dorian Finney-Smith turnover
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Stephon Castle misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Spurs offensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses three point running jump shot
Rockets turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
74-78
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Devin Vassell)
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Devin Vassell)
Reed Sheppard shooting foul (De'Aaron Fox draws the foul)
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
71-78
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
72-78
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun)
Kevin Durant misses two point jump shot
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point floating jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)
70-78
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
91-86
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Luke Kornet technical foul (Double)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
67-76
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Spurs personal foul
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Julian Champagnie misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
111-99
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
65-74
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Tari Eason misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point putback layup
91-86
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes)
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Stephon Castle misses two point layup
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-72
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
63-70
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive foul (Julian Champagnie draws the foul)
Jabari Smith Jr. turnover (offensive foul)
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Victor Wembanyama personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
Victor Wembanyama turnover (offensive foul)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
60-70
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point fadeaway jump shot
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
60-68
Tari Eason personal foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
Tari Eason turnover (bad pass) (Stephon Castle steals)
Spurs turnover
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot
58-68
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
58-65
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. shooting foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
91-86
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-86
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
60-68
Spurs personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
91-86
Harrison Barnes misses three point running jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Josh Okogie misses three point driving floating jump shot
End of 1st Half.
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Rockets offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Dylan Harper blocks Tari Eason's two point pullup jump shot
De'Aaron Fox turnover (bad pass) (Josh Okogie steals)
Rockets turnover
Rockets offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point running pullup jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
54-62
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-86
Spurs offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul (Victor Wembanyama draws the foul)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Victor Wembanyama makes two point jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
51-62
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
51-62
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point driving floating jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point hook shot
54-62
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
91-86
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point tip layup
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama shooting foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-60
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Dylan Harper turnover (bad pass) (Jabari Smith Jr. steals)
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point jump shot (Keldon Johnson assists)
54-62
+2
Reed Sheppard makes two point jump shot
54-62
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell)
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Harrison Barnes)
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
91-86
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses three point running jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama blocks Alperen Sengun's two point turnaround hook shot
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets violation
Rockets 60 second timeout
Stephon Castle turnover (lost ball)
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle turnover
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
91-86
+3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point jump shot
91-86
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Tari Eason makes three point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
43-55
+2
Harrison Barnes makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
43-55
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell)
+3
Tari Eason makes three point jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)
54-62
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Spurs 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Josh Okogie, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Tari Eason misses two point layup
Stephon Castle turnover (bad pass) (Tari Eason steals)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
91-86
Stephon Castle turnover
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
54-62
Stoppage (Other)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
39-42
Amen Thompson turnover (Victor Wembanyama steals)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
37-42
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Kevin Durant offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Carter Bryant kicked ball violation
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson)
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
37-42
+2
Julian Champagnie makes two point jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
37-42
Rockets turnover
Spurs lineup change (Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Harrison Barnes)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
33-40
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
37-42
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point jump shot
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point running dunk
37-42
Clint Capela defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
91-86
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
35-42
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
Clint Capela misses two point layup
Rockets offensive rebound
Spurs lineup change (Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Kevin Durant, Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 43 | L. Waters III | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| C | 18 | B. Biyombo | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 0 | J. McLaughlin | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 11 | C. Bryant | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 2 | D. Harper | 16 | 4 | 3 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 0 | A. Holiday | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| F | 8 | J. Tate | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 20 | J. Okogie | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| C | 30 | C. Capela | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| F | 2 | D. Finney-Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 |
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Spurs vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Spurs vs. Rockets
- Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 220.5
- Moneyline Odds: Spurs +122, Rockets -142
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Spurs: 43%
- Rockets: 57%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 109-111 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 43%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Spurs in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Spurs vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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