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Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [1/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid predictions for La Liga Sunday.
Real Sociedad will square off with Atletico Madrid in La Liga action at Reale Arena on Sunday, commencing at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model projects Atletico Madrid as the most likely winner of the Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's La Liga match between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid 10,000 times as part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 26.1% chance of Real Sociedad winning, a 47.5% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 26.3% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +290 | -105 | +265 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +106 | -128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Sociedad | +290 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -128 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Real Sociedad to win.
Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scoresaccording to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| SOC 1-1 ATM | 12.5% |
| SOC 0-1 ATM | 12.3% |
| SOC 1-2 ATM | 9.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 48.9% chance that both Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid score, and a 51.1% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's La Liga game between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid at Reale Arena is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Reale Arena
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Real Sociedad has a 26.1% win probability on Sunday, Atletico Madrid has a 47.5% win probability, and there is a 26.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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