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Real Madrid vs. Alaves prediction, odds, La Liga picks [4/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Real Madrid vs Alaves predictions for La Liga Tuesday.
La Liga action continues on Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET as Alaves takes on the favored Real Madrid at .
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven La Liga model predicts Real Madrid as the most likely winner of the Real Madrid vs. Alaves game.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Alaves, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 70.7% chance of Real Madrid winning, an 11.9% chance for Alaves, and a 17.4% chance of a draw.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves odds
We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Real Madrid | Alaves | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -320 | +800 | +500 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alaves | +800 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Real Madrid win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MAD 2-0 ALV | 11.3% |
| MAD 2-1 ALV | 9.6% |
| MAD 1-0 ALV | 9.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.7% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Real Madrid vs. Alaves game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's La Liga action between Real Madrid and Alaves is scheduled to start in the USA at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Real Madrid vs. Alaves
- Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 70.7% win probability on Tuesday, Alaves has an 11.9% win probability, and there is a 17.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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