Real Madrid vs. Alaves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Alaves La Liga match on April 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Alaves
1
2
Real Madrid
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
AlavesALA
K. Mbappe (30')
Soccer ball icon
Vinicius Junior (50')
Soccer ball icon
T. Martinez (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Alaves
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Perez (Alaves) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by T. Martinez, assisted by A. Guevara
    1-2
  3. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces A. Blanco
  4. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: Calebe replaces Yusi
  5. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: I. Diabate replaces L. Boye
  6. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: E. Camavinga replaces A. Tchouameni
  7. 63'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Carvajal replaces T. Alexander-Arnold
  8. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces J. Bellingham
  9. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: F. Mastantuono replaces A. Guler
  10. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Alena replaces J. Guridi
  11. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: P. Ibanez replaces D. Suarez
  12. 50'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior, assisted by F. Valverde
    0-2
  13. 45'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Rudiger replaces Eder Militao
  14. 35'
    Yellow Card
    A. Tchouameni (Real Madrid) cautioned
  15. 30'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Guler
    0-1

Real Madrid vs. Alaves: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Alaves
  • Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -450, Alaves +1300, draw +650
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-350/+275)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 76.5%
  • Alaves: 9.2%
  • Draw: 14.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-0 Alaves (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Alaves? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 76.5%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-0 Alaves.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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