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Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Rayo Vallecano vs Girona predictions for La Liga Monday.
Rayo Vallecano and Girona will meet in La Liga at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas on Monday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Rayo Vallecano as the most likely winner of the Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Girona, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests a 39.7% chance of Rayo Vallecano winning, a 34.6% chance for Girona, and a 25.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over, according to our model.
Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona odds
We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Rayo Vallecano | Girona | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +145 | +200 | +230 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -125 | -110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Girona | +200 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -110 |
According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Girona to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RAY 1-1 GIR | 12.2% |
| RAY 1-0 GIR | 9.4% |
| RAY 0-1 GIR | 8.7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.8% chance of both Rayo Vallecano and Girona finding the net and a 45.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona game-day updates and essential details
Monday's La Liga matchup between Rayo Vallecano and Girona at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Rayo Vallecano has a 39.7% win probability on Monday, Girona has a 34.6% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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