Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona prediction, odds, La Liga picks [5/11/2026]

Rayo Vallecano and Girona will meet in La Liga at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas on Monday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced La Liga model predicts Rayo Vallecano as the most likely winner of the Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Girona, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 39.8% chance of Rayo Vallecano winning, a 33.1% chance for Girona, and a 27.1% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Rayo Vallecano	Girona	Draw
+125	+240	+230

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-109	-114

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Girona	+240
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-114

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Girona to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
RAY 1-1 GIR	12.9%
RAY 1-0 GIR	11.1%
RAY 0-1 GIR	9.9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 50.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 49.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona game-day updates and essential details

Monday's La Liga matchup between Rayo Vallecano and Girona at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas is scheduled to begin in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Rayo Vallecano vs. Girona
• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Rayo Vallecano has a 39.8% win probability on Monday, Girona has a 33.1% win probability, and there is a 27.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.