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Steelers vs. Lions prediction: Detroit favored to win in NFL Week 16 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Detroit Lions will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 16 action at Ford Field on Sunday, starting at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Steelers vs. Lions game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Steelers vs. Lions prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Steelers-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Steelers and Lions 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 71% chance of beating the Steelers in Week 16 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 28-22.
According to our model, the Steelers (+7.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 52.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 16 straight up picks.
Steelers vs. Lions odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Steelers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (-115) | -7.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +300 | -370 |
| Total | o52.5 (-105) | u52.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Steelers vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Steelers +7.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Steelers | +300 |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -115 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Steelers to win.
Steelers vs. Lions TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Steelers vs. Lions?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Steelers vs. Lions.
Our projections give Gibbs a 66.6% chance of scoring a TD at Ford Field, while the running back is a 17.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 43.3% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 36.4% |
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 36.1% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 18.9% |
| Darnell Washington (TE) | 17.0% |
Detroit Lions
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 66.6% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 50.9% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 41.0% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 37.7% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 16.6% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kenneth Gainwell (RB) | 8.7% |
| DK Metcalf (WR) | 6.9% |
| Jaylen Warren (RB) | 6.8% |
| Pat Freiermuth (TE) | 3.2% |
| Darnell Washington (TE) | 2.9% |
Detroit Lions
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) | 17.2% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) | 11.1% |
| David Montgomery (RB) | 8.3% |
| Jameson Williams (WR) | 7.4% |
| Isaac TeSlaa (WR) | 2.8% |
Steelers vs Lions player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Steelers and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 16 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is projected for 232 passing yards, while the Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for a whopping 263 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 232 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 263 |
Steelers rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 44 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 35 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 4 |
Lions rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 77 |
| David Montgomery | 37 |
| Sione Vaki | 4 |
Steelers receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 66 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 30 |
| Darnell Washington | 28 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 24 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 19 |
Lions receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 91 |
| Jameson Williams | 72 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 43 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 17 |
| Kalif Raymond | 14 |
Steelers vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 16 action between the Lions and Steelers at Ford Field is scheduled to commence at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Ford Field
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Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Steelers in Week 16 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Steelers vs. Lions insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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