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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [12/23/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, starting at 4:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Penguins and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 55% chance of defeating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+190) |
| Moneyline | +112 | -130 |
| Total | o6 (-130) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs -1.5 | +190 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | -130 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Matthews a 41.4% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 37.6% |
| Bryan Rust | 33.9% |
| Rickard Rakell | 30.9% |
| Anthony Mantha | 24.1% |
| Thomas Novak | 20.4% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 41.4% |
| William Nylander | 36.6% |
| John Tavares | 32.4% |
| Matthew Knies | 29.0% |
| Bobby McMann | 20.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 7.6% |
| Bryan Rust | 6.5% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.9% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.1% |
| Thomas Novak | 3.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.6% |
| William Nylander | 7.3% |
| John Tavares | 6.9% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.9% |
| Bobby McMann | 3.6% |
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Maple Leafs and Penguins at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
- Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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