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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on December 23, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Penguins
3
6
Dec 23, 9PM Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Dec 23, 9PM Scotiabank Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Penguins
1 1 1 3
Maple Leafs
2 1 3 6
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
PenguinsPIT
Win %
0%
100%
Maple LeafsTOR
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Penguins
1 1 1 3
Maple Leafs
2 1 3 6
P3 19:44 Power play - Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
P3 19:42 Power play - Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:12 Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:04 Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 19:00 Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Scott Laughton
P3 18:36 Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by John Tavares and Matthew Knies
P3 17:57 Goal scored by Bobby McMann
P3 17:28 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 16:51 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 15:28 Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 14:51 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 14:14 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 13:07 Shot missed by Ryan Shea
P3 13:01 Thomas Novak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P3 12:31 Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Chris Tanev
P3 11:56 Power play - Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 11:35 Goal scored by Max Domi
P3 11:13 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 10:53 Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 10:16 Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Stuart Skinner
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:44
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
P3 19:42
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:15
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P3 19:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:04
SHOT
Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 19:00
SHOT
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Scott Laughton
P3 18:46
Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Ville Koivunen in neutral zone
P3 18:36
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 18:36
GOAL
Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by John Tavares and Matthew Knies
3-6
P3 18:25
Takeaway by John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 18:02
John Tavares won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P3 18:02
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 17:57
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
P3 17:57
GOAL
Goal scored by Bobby McMann
3-5
P3 17:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 16:51
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 16:46
Giveaway by Thomas Novak in neutral zone
P3 16:21
John Tavares won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
P3 16:21
Stoppage - Offside
P3 15:30
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 15:30
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 15:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:26
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 15:26
Stoppage - Icing
P3 14:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 14:36
Matthew Knies credited with hit on Kris Letang in offensive zone
P3 14:36
Giveaway by Kris Letang in defensive zone
P3 14:23
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
P3 14:23
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 14:16
Kevin Hayes won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 14:16
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 14:14
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 13:43
Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
P3 13:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Shea
P3 13:01
SHOT
Thomas Novak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P3 13:00
Takeaway by Justin Brazeau in offensive zone
P3 12:31
SHOT
Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Chris Tanev
P3 11:56
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 11:52
Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
P3 11:35
Noel Acciari won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
P3 11:35
GOAL
Goal scored by Max Domi
3-4
P3 11:13
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 10:53
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 10:16
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 09:57
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
P3 09:57
Penalty to Ben Kindel 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by William Nylander)
P3 09:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 09:50
Takeaway by William Nylander in defensive zone
P3 09:41
John Tavares won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
P3 09:41
Penalty to Matias Maccelli 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 09:30
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 09:10
Shorthanded - Noel Acciari won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 09:10
Penalty to Erik Karlsson 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by John Tavares)
P3 08:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 08:03
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P3 08:03
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 08:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 07:25
SHOT
Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 07:24
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 07:24
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 07:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack St. Ivany saved by Joseph Woll
P3 07:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 07:02
SHOT
Shot missed by Thomas Novak
P3 06:29
Giveaway by Thomas Novak in neutral zone
P3 06:27
Takeaway by Thomas Novak in neutral zone
P3 06:21
John Tavares won faceoff against Thomas Novak in offensive zone
P3 06:21
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 06:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 05:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P3 05:28
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P3 05:28
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 04:46
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 04:15
John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Mantha in defensive zone
P3 04:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 04:13
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Brazeau saved by Joseph Woll
P3 04:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
P3 04:09
Thomas Novak won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P3 04:09
Stoppage - Icing
P3 03:04
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P3 03:04
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 03:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 03:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P3 03:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 02:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 02:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 02:17
SHOT
Jack St. Ivany shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 01:42
Noel Acciari won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 01:42
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 01:06
SHOT
Scott Laughton shot blocked by Ben Kindel
P3 01:00
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P3 01:00
GOAL
Goal scored by Anthony Mantha
3-3
P3 00:55
SHOT
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 00:51
SHOT
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by John Tavares
P3 00:36
John Tavares won faceoff against Thomas Novak in defensive zone
P3 00:36
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 00:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Joseph Woll
P3 00:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Joseph Woll
P2 19:19
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Kris Letang
P2 19:13
John Tavares won faceoff against Thomas Novak in offensive zone
P2 19:13
Stoppage - Icing
P2 18:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 18:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 18:22
SHOT
Thomas Novak shot blocked by teammate
P2 18:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 17:36
Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
P2 16:46
Nicolas Roy credited with hit on Rutger McGroarty in neutral zone
P2 15:58
Giveaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
P2 14:47
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone
P2 14:47
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 14:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rutger McGroarty saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rutger McGroarty saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:13
Justin Brazeau credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
P2 14:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
P2 13:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Joseph Woll
P2 12:37
John Tavares won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
P2 12:37
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 12:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P2 12:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P2 11:43
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P2 11:43
GOAL
Goal scored by Rutger McGroarty
2-3
P2 11:39
SHOT
Ryan Shea shot blocked by teammate
P2 11:10
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by teammate
P2 11:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 11:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
P2 10:57
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
P2 10:57
Stoppage - Icing
P2 10:50
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
P2 10:50
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P2 10:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Kevin Hayes
P2 10:00
SHOT
Kris Letang shot blocked by teammate
P2 09:58
Noel Acciari won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P2 09:58
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 09:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 08:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Philippe Myers
P2 08:48
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 08:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 07:38
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P2 07:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
P2 07:06
Takeaway by Parker Wotherspoon in neutral zone
P2 06:50
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P2 06:22
Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone
P2 06:10
John Tavares won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in offensive zone
P2 06:10
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 06:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Chris Tanev saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 05:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 05:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 04:43
Ben Kindel won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 04:43
Stoppage - Icing
P2 04:09
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P2 04:09
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 04:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 04:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P2 04:03
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
P2 04:03
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 04:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 03:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Joseph Woll
P2 03:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor Dewar
P2 02:26
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P2 01:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Joseph Woll
P2 00:40
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
P2 00:40
Stoppage - Icing
P2 00:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Stuart Skinner
P2 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
P1 19:49
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P1 19:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Joseph Woll
P1 19:44
Giveaway by Chris Tanev in defensive zone
P1 19:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 18:30
Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone
P1 17:33
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P1 17:25
SHOT
Brett Kulak shot blocked by Chris Tanev
P1 17:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Joseph Woll
P1 16:26
SHOT
Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
P1 16:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
P1 14:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
P1 14:30
Kris Letang credited with hit on Bobby McMann in defensive zone
P1 14:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 14:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P1 13:54
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 13:34
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P1 13:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 13:13
John Tavares won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P1 13:13
Stoppage - Offside
P1 12:44
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Shea
P1 12:42
Thomas Novak won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P1 12:42
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 12:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Joseph Woll
P1 12:04
Giveaway by Stuart Skinner in defensive zone
P1 11:43
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Brett Kulak
P1 11:39
John Tavares won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in offensive zone
P1 11:39
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 11:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 11:18
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 11:18
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 11:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Joseph Woll
P1 11:14
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 11:14
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P1 11:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 10:58
SHOT
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 10:23
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P1 10:15
SHOT
Ryan Shea shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P1 09:51
Thomas Novak won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P1 09:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Joseph Woll
P1 09:43
SHOT
Bobby McMann shot blocked by Kris Letang
P1 09:35
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P1 09:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 09:31
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Kris Letang
P1 09:07
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 09:07
GOAL
Goal scored by William Nylander
0-1
P1 09:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 08:48
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noel Acciari saved by Joseph Woll
P1 08:31
Takeaway by Kevin Hayes in offensive zone
P1 08:20
Noel Acciari won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 08:20
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P1 08:09
SHOT
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
P1 07:26
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
P1 06:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 05:42
SHOT
Connor Dewar shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P1 04:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
P1 04:23
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
P1 04:23
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 04:21
SHOT
Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P1 03:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Stuart Skinner
P1 03:55
John Tavares won faceoff against Thomas Novak in offensive zone
P1 03:55
Stoppage - Icing
P1 03:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Joseph Woll
P1 02:42
SHOT
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by teammate
P1 02:31
SHOT
Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P1 02:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Shea saved by Joseph Woll
P1 01:59
Noel Acciari won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 01:59
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack St. Ivany
P1 01:46
Takeaway by Ben Kindel in offensive zone
P1 01:42
Rutger McGroarty credited with hit on Philippe Myers in offensive zone
P1 00:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Domi
P1 00:38
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon in defensive zone
P1 00:14
Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P1 00:14
Stoppage - Icing
P1 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Penguins
STATS
Maple Leafs
32Shots on Goal31
41% Faceoff Win % 59%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
16Hits19
7Shots Blocked14
14Giveaways19
PenguinsPIT
Maple LeafsTOR
32Shots on Goal31
41% Faceoff Win % 59%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
16Hits19
7Shots Blocked14
14Giveaways19

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Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Penguins vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
  • Time: 4:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Penguins +117, Maple Leafs -130

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Penguins: 45%
  • Maple Leafs: 55%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 45%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 55%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Penguins vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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