Maple Leafs vs. Flames prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 26, 2026

The Toronto Maple Leafs are favored to beat the Calgary Flames on Monday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Flames prediction gives Toronto a 55.3% chance of winning at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 6.5 goals.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames: Key predictions

• Maple Leafs win probability: 55.3%
• Flames win probability: 44.7%
• Flames +1.5 puck line: 65.6% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 52.2% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets monitored by Dimers.

• Maple Leafs moneyline: 58¢ (Novig)
• Flames moneyline: +135 (theScore Bet)
• Maple Leafs -1.5: 36¢ (Novig)
• Flames +1.5: -175 (theScore Bet)
• Over 6.5 goals: 54¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 47¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 6.5 (47¢)

The Maple Leafs may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 6.5 total goals at 47¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 47.0% chance of the game finishing under 6.5 goals, while our model puts that probability at 52.2%.

That's a 5.2% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

Auston Matthews of the Maple Leafs leads Monday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 39.1%, ahead of teammate William Nylander (38.0%). Calgary's most likely goal-scorer, Aydar Suniev, is further back at 29.6%. Matthews also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.2%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 39.1%
• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 38.0%
• Aydar Suniev (Flames): 29.6%
• Kirill Marchenko (Maple Leafs): 28.9%
• Joel Farabee (Flames): 28.4%

First goal-scorer predictions

• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 8.2%
• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 7.6%
• Aydar Suniev (Flames): 6.0%
• Kirill Marchenko (Maple Leafs): 5.2%
• Joel Farabee (Flames): 5.2%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Maple Leafs vs. Flames predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Monday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Maple Leafs vs. Flames predictions.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames game details

• Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames
• Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
• Puck drop: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.