Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [11/3/2025]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on Monday, beginning at 7:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Maple Leafs game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including goal scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL game between the Penguins and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 60% chance of beating the Penguins.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Penguins	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-150)	-1.5 (+130)
Moneyline	+154	-184
Total	o6.5 (-115)	u6.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Penguins +1.5	-150
Moneyline	Penguins	+154
Total	Under 6.5	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins +1.5 at the spread.

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 45.5% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	34.8%
Bryan Rust	31.9%
Filip Hallander	31.2%
Anthony Mantha	25.8%
Evgeni Malkin	20.8%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	45.5%
William Nylander	35.1%
John Tavares	32.6%
Matthew Knies	30.3%
Bobby McMann	18.5%

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Bryan Rust	6.7%
Sidney Crosby	6.0%
Filip Hallander	5.3%
Anthony Mantha	4.1%
Evgeni Malkin	3.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.8%
William Nylander	6.9%
Matthew Knies	6.3%
John Tavares	5.7%
Nicholas Robertson	3.1%

Penguins vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Maple Leafs and Penguins at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Monday, November 3, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Monday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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