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Penguins vs. Oilers prediction: Why Edmonton is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Edmonton Oilers predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Edmonton Oilers will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Rogers Place on Thursday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Oilers as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Oilers game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Oilers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Penguins and Oilers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Oilers a 59% chance of defeating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Penguins vs. Oilers odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (+152) |
| Moneyline | +140 | -154 |
| Total | o6.5 (-114) | u6.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Oilers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Oilers -1.5 | +152 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | +140 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -102 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Penguins vs. Oilers player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Oilers?
According to our model, Connor McDavid is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Oilers.
Our projections give McDavid a 49.4% chance of scoring a goal at Rogers Place, while the star is a 10.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 34.1% |
| Sidney Crosby | 31.3% |
| Rickard Rakell | 27.7% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 22.7% |
| Thomas Novak | 21.1% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 49.4% |
| Zach Hyman | 48.2% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 27.4% |
| Jack Roslovic | 26.2% |
| Evan Bouchard | 23.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 6.7% |
| Sidney Crosby | 6.3% |
| Rickard Rakell | 4.5% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 4.3% |
| Thomas Novak | 3.4% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 10.4% |
| Zach Hyman | 10.2% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 5.1% |
| Jack Roslovic | 4.5% |
| Evan Bouchard | 3.6% |
Penguins vs. Oilers game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Oilers and Penguins at Rogers Place is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Place
Conclusion
We predict the Oilers, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Oilers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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