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Penguins vs. Flames prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [1/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Calgary Flames predictions for NHL Wednesday.
NHL action continues on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET as the Pittsburgh Penguins square off with the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Penguins a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Flames.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's Penguins vs. Flames matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Flames prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Flames 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Penguins a 51% chance of defeating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Penguins vs. Flames odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+195) | +1.5 (-215) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +116 |
| Total | o5.5 (-120) | u5.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Flames picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -215 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +116 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Flames to win.
Penguins vs. Flames player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Flames?
According to our model, Bryan Rust is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Flames.
Our projections give Rust a 32.5% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the star is a 6.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 32.5% |
| Sidney Crosby | 32.2% |
| Rickard Rakell | 28.3% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 22.5% |
| Thomas Novak | 19.3% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 28.4% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 27.5% |
| Matthew Coronato | 22.6% |
| Connor Zary | 21.7% |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 21.3% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 6.5% |
| Bryan Rust | 6.4% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.3% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 4.1% |
| Anthony Mantha | 3.4% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich | 6.1% |
| Nazem Kadri | 5.8% |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 4.4% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.1% |
| Connor Zary | 3.7% |
Penguins vs. Flames game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Flames and Penguins at Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Calgary Flames
- Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome
Conclusion
We predict the Penguins, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Wednesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Flames insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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