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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Valspar Championship Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor for the final weekend in Florida at the Valspar Championship. This tournament has a very solid field, headlined by Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick. Last week, our model correctly nailed Scottie Scheffler to emerge victorious at THE PLAYERS Championship at +1100 odds. This week, we have identified an under the radar Best Bet worth taking. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Who will win the Valspar Championship?

This Week's PGA Tour Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship, down below.

  WIN TOP 5 TOP 10
Justin Thomas 9.0% 27.4% 41.4%
Jordan Spieth 5.5% 19.6% 31.7%
Matt Fitzpatrick 5.4% 21.1% 34.6%
Tommy Fleetwood 4.1% 16.2% 27.7%
Justin Rose 4.1% 16.8% 28.0%

RELATED: Dimers' Golf Rankings - Who is No. 1?

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

The Valspar Championship is the final stop in the PGA Tour's Florida run, and it boasts a solid, but not spectacular field coming off of last week's loaded field at the PLAYERS Championship. This weekend's field includes five of the top 20 and ten of the top 50 players in the world golf rankings.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is the home course this weekend, with a Par of 71. Sam Burns is a two-time defending champion and is valued as the fourth-favorite according to the sportsbooks, while our model doesn't like his chances to emerge from the pack for the third time in a row. This is a good tournament to take a shot at someone with longer odds, as the field is wide open and offers plenty of chances for smaller names to earn a coveted PGA Tour victory.

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

Best Bets to Win the Valspar Championship

The DimersBOT has it's eyes on a golfer with long odds this weekend, and any time that happens, we jump all over it. With many of the top players in the world opting to sit this one out, our model says the best play of the week is Sam Ryder (+10000). DimersBOT gives Ryder a 2.1% probability of winning the tournament, good for 12th highest in the field, despite being valued as just the 36th most-likely winner according to the oddsmakers.

It's not a completely insane pick, as Ryder is not exactly coming out of nowhere. He's a veteran on the tour, and has been in good form in the early season, finishing in the top 20 at three of his last five events, highlighted by a 4th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. After correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler to win last week, we respect the DimersBOT too much not to sprinkle this one at The Valspar Championship. $10 to win $1000? Let's do it.

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