PGA Tour Expert Picks: Memorial Tournament Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA TOUR rolls on. An eventful tournament at the Charles Schwab Challenge saw Emiliano Grillo win his first event since 2015 after edging out Adam Schenk in a playoff. This week we head to Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, OH.

We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the Memorial Tournament?

This Week's PGA Tour Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the Memorial Tournament, down below:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler	13.7%	41.5%	57.9%
Jon Rahm	10.2%	33.7%	50.1%
Xander Schauffele	8.3%	28.7%	44.1%
Patrick Cantlay	8.0%	29.0%	44.2%
Rory McIlroy	5.0%	20.1%	34.3%

RELATED: Memorial Tournament Matchup Parlay

Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

The Memorial Tournament is a special event, founded by golf great Jack Nicklaus back in 1976. The course is a Par 72 totaling 7,533 yards and holds a $20,000,000 purse.

A few of our model's best bets to win the tournament have some great history at Muirfield Village. Patrick Cantlay won in both 2019 and 2021, as well as a T-3 finish in 2022 and fourth place in 2018. Jon Rahm is looking to bounce back after a rough T-50 at the PGA Championship with a strong showing at the event he won in 2020.

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

Best Bets to Win the Memorial Tournament

Our best bet to win the Memorial Tournament is Xander Schauffele at +1400. Our model gives him an 8.3% probability to win, giving us a slight edge of almost 2%. You can see how Patrick Cantlay is overpriced due to his historical dominance on this course, sitting at +1000 yet with an almost identical probability from our model.

Three of Schauffele's last four events have seen him finish 2nd, 4th and T-4 so he's got great momentum heading into Memorial. At +1400, he's a strong value play.

Speaking of value, Wyndham Clark to win at +6000 is worth a small sprinkle. His probability from our model is just 2.4%, but he sits between golfers Collin Morikawa (2.4% at +2200) and Matt Fitzpatrick (2.3% at +3500) but at a much better price. He's ranked 12th in our in-house rankings from DimersBOT and though he's coming off a Missed Cut at the PGA Championship, he's just two events removed from his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship.

BET: Xander Schauffele to Win (+1400), Wyndham Clark to Win (+6000)

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got two placement bets to consider. For the same reason we suggested Wyndham Clark as an outright winner, we're again looking at him for a Top-20 finish. Our model gives him a 39.9% probability to place Top 20, but his +200 odds suggest just a 33.3% chance, and has better odds than our next ten (!) most likely top-20 finishers.

In the Top 5 market we see a little value in Tyrrell Hatton. He has four such finishes this year, including two in his last three events. At +550, we're getting about 3% +EV as our model has Hatton down with an 18.2% chance to secure a Top 5 placement. Like Clark, he has the best odds based on his probability compared to the other golfers with a similar chance.

BET: Tyrrell Hatton To Finish Top 5 (+550), Wyndham Clark to Finish Top 20 (+200)