PGA Tour Expert Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions and Best Bets

Who will win the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, down below:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler	13.7%	39.7%	56.9%
Rory McIlroy	10.5%	33.0%	51.0%
Jon Rahm	9.3%	32.2%	48.7%
Patrick Cantlay	5.4%	22.3%	38.0%
Xander Schauffele	5.3%	21.4%	37.8%

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

TPC Southwind is a par 70 that totals 7,243 yards. Last year's FedEx Cup winner, Rory McIlroy, became the first three-time champion and will look to become the first back-to-back winner with a strong showing at this opening event. He's also just one of two golfers with a win probability greater than 10%. Will Zalatoris is the reigning winner of this event, but a back injury that has sidelined him for most of this year will make him absent this time around.

Naturally, Scottie Scheffler is our model's favorite to win after the elite season he's been having at a 13.7% chance. But is he a value play all on his own? Let's dive into our top picks based on DimersBOT's win probabilities to find out. 

MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets For the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Scottie Scheffer To Win (+650)

Your World No. 1 and holder of the second-most points in the FedEx Cup standings, Scottie Scheffler is one of our model's preferred bets as we open the PGA TOUR playoffs. Scheffler is the betting favorite as he has been many times this year, and in a smaller field of just 70 golfers, it's immensely more difficult to find value in the odds which are generally shorter than usual.

Scheffler gets a 13.7% chance to win the tournament per our model, which is right in line with his odds of +650. Normally, we like to find a real edge, but a fair price still makes a solid bet, especially when you're backing the TOUR leader in almost all Strokes Gained categories. 

The best standalone price is at BetMGM, but if you bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to +900.

Tommy Fleetwood To Win (+3000)

Our second outright winner bet is for Englishman Tommy Fleetwood to secure a first-place finish. Sporting impressive stats well into the top 20% of this field, Fleetwood is looking to bring his end-of-season strong form into the playoffs. Aside from a pair of missed cuts at the Travelers Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge, he hasn't finished outside the Top 20 in his last nine events, including four finishes inside the Top 6 and one second-place finish.

Fleetwood gets a 3.6% chance from our model which, like Scheffler, just about falls in line with his odds of +3000. Though we're not getting much of an edge, the price is fair and if you look at the players with similar probabilities to Fleetwood, they all have worse odds.

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got some placement bets to consider. In addition to these pre-tournament bets, they make good live options if you keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual daily 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.

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Keegan Bradley to Finish Top 10 (+500)

We head to the top 10 market for a placement bet with an edge, and that's Keegan Bradley to secure his sixth such finish this year. He'd like to return to the form he showed at the beginning of the season when he netted three Top 5 finishes in his first six events. Bradley has won twice on the TOUR this season, including his third most-recent event the Travelers Championship at the end of June. He's participated in just two events since then, finishing T21 and a Miissed Cut at The Open, which gave everyone fits.

DimersBOT gives Bradley just under a 20% chance of a Top 10 finish, which gives us a 3.5% edge in his odds of +500. He's shown plenty of upside this year against larger fields, so we like his chances and are backing the BOT here.

Tyrrell Hatton to Finish Top 5 (+500)

Let's go for an even narrower market with Tyrrell Hatton to finish in the top five. The second Englishman we're backing in this column, Hatton has finished this high in five separate events, notably in two of his last four and four of his last eight. He's looking for that elusive win, but he's shown his ability to compete as three of those finishes are T3 or better. He's great on the greens, with the sixth-best SG: Putting metrics on TOUR.

DimersBOT gives Hatton an 18.6% chance to finish Top 5, giving us a 2% edge. It's a small advantage, but better than the +425 we should be getting per our model.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the FedEx St. Jude Championship to find your favorite plays!

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