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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions & Best Bets

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions & Best Bets

After an exhilarating PGA Championship that saw LIV golfer Brooks Koepka secure the win, we're back in action for the Charles Schwab Challenge, albeit with none of the LIV trimmings. We head to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks risk-free, meaning they'll get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

 

Who will win the Charles Schwab Challenge?

This Week's PGA Tour Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge, down below.

  WIN TOP 5 TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler 17.3% 44.9% 60.7%
Tony Finau 10.3% 31.9% 47.6%
Sungjae Im 6.5% 25.2% 39.7%
Max Homa 4.8% 20.0% 34.6%
Tommy Fleetwood  4.3% 18% 31.8%

RELATED: Charles Schwab Challenge Matchup Parlay

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

Last year's runner-up, Scottie Scheffler, is (to no one's surprise) the heavy favorite yet again.

After battling a difficult course made more challenging by inclement weather, the field gets better weather and a shorter course in Fort Worth. Colonial is a friend to ball-strikers and requires a strong command both on approach and while putting, the two areas seeing the most strokes gained. 

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

Best Bets to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge

World No. 1 and our No. 2, Scottie Scheffler, is far and away the favorite at yet another event. Deservedly so, as he's played some of the best golf on the planet over the past couple of years. While our model agrees by giving him the highest probability to win, it also finds no value in his short odds of +450.

Sticking around the top of the board, we find much better value in Tony Finau (+1400) and Tommy Fleetwood (+3000). Finau's odds imply just a 6.7% chance, but our model is predicting a 10.3% probability, meaning there's about +500 in value just sitting there for the taking.

In Fleetwood's case, he has a probability virtually identical to those around him in the likes of Homa, Hovland and Spieth, but at an immensely better price. The Englishman's got a pair of Top-5 finishes in the last two months and has a great shot to compete in Texas.

BET: Tony Finau to Win (+1400), Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+3000)

 
 

Beyond our outright winners, let's identify a couple of placement bets worth taking based on the value presented by our model. Tony Finau (+330) is a strong play, both in value and as a slight hedge should he be in contention but fall just short of the win. Sungjae Im (+400) is a golfer who really catches our eye, getting a price about 5.2% better than his implied probability on the books suggests. He's also one of our H2H picks in our matchups parlay.

In the Top 10 market, Tommy Fleetwood makes another appearance, sitting at +300 to place with a 31.8% probability. Our favorite in this market, however, is Max Homa at +240. His odds imply under a 30% chance of placing Top 10, but we calculate him at a 35% chance, meaning his odds should be no longer than +180. He has five such finishes on the year and we like him to make it six this weekend.

BET: Sungjae Im to Finish Top 5 (+400), Max Homa to Finish Top 10 (+240)

 
 
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave is a fantasy sports and betting enthusiast especially when it comes to MLB and the NFL. When he’s not arguing the case for why New Haven pizza is the greatest on Earth, he can be found reading comic books, working in the garden or hanging with the cats.

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