Parlay these Bills vs. Texans player props at +405 odds for Thursday Night Football betting

Week 12 in the NFL has arrived and we're kicking things off with another Thursday Night NFL Parlay built with the Dimers model for tonight's Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Primetime matchup on November 20, 2025, as we look to cash in with the Dimers data.

This has been our biggest NFL season yet on Dimers, with the launch of our new NFL Player Projections hub, complete with boxscores and fantasy projections, our improved NFL predictions models, the rollout of our new Sports Betting Podcast and editorial content enhancements.

To kick off NFL Week 12, we're using our model's Thursday Night Football predictions to build a +405 odds Same Game Parlay over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can claim up to a $300 DraftKings bonus when they sign up.

NFL parlay tonight - Bills vs. Texans

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the parlay picks that make up our three-leg same game parlay in Bills vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football, November 20.

Leg 1: Josh Allen 25+ Rushing Yards

Our first leg is on Bills QB Josh Allen to do some work with his legs as he's done all season long.

Allen draws a projection of 33.6 rushing yards, just over his rushing line of 31.5 on DraftKings. While that's a play based on projection alone, we'll tease down to 25+ for this parlay.

The reigning NFL MVP has hit 25+ rushing yards in 8 of 10 games this year, going under vs. the Panthers in a blowout and and vs. the Chiefs.

The Texans passing defense is elite, so Allen may find it tough to carve up this defense through the air, but has a good opportunity to hit this mark on the ground. The Texans allow an average of just 19 rushing yards per game to QBs, but that is A) only 18th in the NFL and B) not what's been trending lately.

A QB has hit this in three-straight games vs. Houston - Cam Ward, Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix - each of them hit 30+ yards, putting Allen in a good spot on Thursday Night Football.

Leg 2: Woody Marks 60+ Rushing Yards

Next up, we'll switch sides of the field but stay in the running game as we take rookie RB Woody Marks to clear at least 60 rushing yards.

Marks has hit this in 3 of 10 games this year, but that doesn't tell the full story. He saw single digit carries in four of his first five games, before taking over as the lead back in Houston, and he's hit this in 3/6 games in which he saw double-digit carries.

That should be the case tonight against a good passing defense and the 31st-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, with Buffalo allowing 121.2 rushing yards and 1.4 TDs per game to opposing RBs.

It's a small sample size, but over the past few weeks, Marks has alternated 60+ yard games with under 60, and he went under with 44 last week, though he saw his season-high volume of 18 carries, making that game look like an outlier.

Marks' projection of 65.1 yards by the Dimers model puts him over this number tonight.

Leg 3: Woody Marks Anytime TD Scorer

We'll close out the parlay by going back to Woody Marks as we take him to get his team-leading fifth touchdown of the year.

Marks has four TDs, two on the ground and two in the passing game, and all four of his TDs have come in the red zone a a go-to asset near the goal line, and over the past four weeks, ahs 16 RZ carries to just 5 for Chubb, who has not converted any of those into a score.

Marks gets a 43.7% TD probability tonight, the highest on the Texans and third-highest in this game behind James Cook and Josh Allen, who face a steeper climb in a tough defensive matchup.

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