...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Bills vs. Texans prediction: Buffalo favored to win TNF Week 12, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans predictions for NFL Thursday.
The Houston Texans will face the favored Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 12 action at NRG Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 8:15PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Bills as the most likely winner of the Bills vs. Texans game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Bills vs. Texans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Bills-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Texans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Bills a 67% chance of beating the Texans in Week 12 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 24-19.
According to our model, the Texans (+5.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 12 straight up picks.
Bills vs. Texans odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -240 | +210 |
| Total | o43.5 (-115) | u43.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bills vs. Texans picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans +5.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Texans | +210 |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Texans +5.5 at the spread.
Bills vs. Texans TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Texans?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bills vs. Texans.
Our projections give Cook a 53.7% chance of scoring a TD at NRG Stadium, while the running back is a 12.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 53.7% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 49.5% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 27.2% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 21.4% |
| Tyrell Shavers (WR) | 17.7% |
Houston Texans
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 45.8% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 38.0% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 21.0% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 18.6% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 15.2% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 12.7% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 11.3% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 5.2% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 4.0% |
| Tyrell Shavers (WR) | 3.2% |
Houston Texans
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks (RB) | 10.6% |
| Nico Collins (WR) | 8.3% |
| Dalton Schultz (TE) | 4.1% |
| Jayden Higgins (WR) | 3.6% |
| Nick Chubb (RB) | 2.9% |
Bills vs Texans player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 12 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 230 passing yards. The Texans' Davis Mills is expected to throw for 220 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 230 |
| Davis Mills (HOU) | 220 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 84 |
| Josh Allen | 34 |
| Ty Johnson | 14 |
Texans rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 65 |
| Nick Chubb | 25 |
| Davis Mills | 11 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 49 |
| Joshua Palmer | 37 |
| Dawson Knox | 31 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 30 |
| Gabe Davis | 29 |
Texans receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 72 |
| Dalton Schultz | 41 |
| Jayden Higgins | 35 |
| Christian Kirk | 22 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 20 |
Bills vs. Texans game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 12 matchup between the Texans and Bills at NRG Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:15PM ET.
- Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
- Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
- Venue: NRG Stadium
NFL Week 12 betting promos and codes
Make the most of Dimers' Bills vs. Texans predictions by exploring the two exciting offers below.
DraftKings Sportsbook
Sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
Bet365 Sportsbook
Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets win or lose.
Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 12 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bills vs. Texans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure