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Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Ottawa is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/27/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Senators vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Senators a 51% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Senators | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+195) | +1.5 (-225) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +106 |
| Total | o6 (-120) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -225 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +106 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Matthews a 40.0% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 36.2% |
| Tim Stutzle | 32.7% |
| Drake Batherson | 30.1% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 22.2% |
| Dylan Cozens | 21.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 40.0% |
| William Nylander | 35.1% |
| John Tavares | 30.3% |
| Matthew Knies | 27.1% |
| Matias Maccelli | 19.8% |
First goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 6.9% |
| Tim Stutzle | 6.4% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.5% |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 4.1% |
| Dylan Cozens | 3.7% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.6% |
| William Nylander | 6.3% |
| John Tavares | 6.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.1% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.8% |
Senators vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Maple Leafs and Senators at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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