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Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on December 27, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Senators
5
7
Dec 28, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Dec 28, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Senators
1 1 3 5
Maple Leafs
2 3 2 7
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
SenatorsOTT
Win %
0%
100%
Maple LeafsTOR
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
1 1 3 5
Maple Leafs
2 3 2 7
P3 19:57 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 19:52 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:35 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 18:42 Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 18:38 Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P3 18:32 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:28 Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P3 18:23 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:21 Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 15:25 Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 14:43 Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 14:30 Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:46 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 12:20 Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 11:56 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 11:47 Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
P3 11:35 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 19:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:46
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P3 19:46
Stoppage - Icing
P3 19:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 18:44
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 18:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 18:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P3 18:32
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:30
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 18:30
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 18:28
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P3 18:24
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P3 18:24
Stoppage - Icing
P3 18:23
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 17:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:49
Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 16:49
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 16:21
SHOT
Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 15:27
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P3 15:27
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 15:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 14:43
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 14:30
SHOT
Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:51
Power play - Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 13:46
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 12:46
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P3 12:46
Penalty to Jake Sanderson 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Scott Laughton)
P3 12:20
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 11:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 11:47
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
P3 11:44
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
P3 11:44
Stoppage - Icing
P3 11:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 11:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 10:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 10:11
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P3 10:11
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
P3 09:18
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P3 09:17
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
P3 09:15
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by teammate
P3 07:57
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P3 07:57
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P3 07:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 06:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
P3 06:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:53
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P3 05:53
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Morgan Rielly and Matias Maccelli
4-6
P3 05:21
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P3 05:21
Stoppage - Icing
P3 05:07
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
P3 05:05
GOAL
Goal scored by Tim Stutzle
4-5
P3 04:49
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 04:49
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 04:25
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 04:25
Stoppage - Icing
P3 04:18
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
P3 04:18
Stoppage - Hand Pass
P3 02:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:18
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P3 02:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P3 01:47
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P3 01:47
Penalty to Drake Batherson 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 01:47
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 01:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
P3 01:15
Nick Cousins credited with hit on Troy Stecher in defensive zone
P3 00:57
Giveaway by Leevi Merilainen in defensive zone
P3 00:46
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P3 00:46
Stoppage - Offside
P3 00:29
Nikolas Matinpalo credited with hit on Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
P3 00:14
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
P3 00:12
GOAL
Goal scored by Drake Batherson assisted by Dylan Cozens and Brady Tkachuk
3-5
P3 00:00
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
P2 19:31
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
P2 19:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
P2 19:05
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P2 18:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 18:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 17:32
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
P2 17:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 17:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 17:32
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 17:11
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P2 17:11
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P2 17:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
P2 16:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
P2 16:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P2 16:05
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P2 16:00
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 16:00
Stoppage - Icing
P2 15:33
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P2 15:33
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 15:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 14:40
SHOT
Shot missed by David Perron
P2 14:39
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 14:39
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:21
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 14:21
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 14:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
P2 13:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P2 13:30
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 12:07
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P2 12:01
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Claude Giroux
P2 12:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 11:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 11:54
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P2 11:54
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 11:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 11:05
SHOT
Shot missed by Senators
P2 09:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 09:17
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P2 09:17
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P2 08:32
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P2 08:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P2 08:29
SHOT
Nicolas Roy shot blocked by teammate
P2 07:28
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
P2 07:28
GOAL
Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Max Domi and Jake McCabe
2-4
P2 07:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 07:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 07:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P2 06:29
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 06:29
Stoppage - Icing
P2 05:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 05:05
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P2 05:05
Stoppage - Icing
P2 04:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
P2 04:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Joseph Woll
P2 03:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P2 03:28
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P2 03:27
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P2 03:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 03:20
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
P2 03:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 03:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 03:05
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P2 03:01
Max Domi won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
P2 03:01
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 03:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 02:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P2 02:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 02:31
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
P2 02:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 01:56
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P2 01:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
P2 01:21
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P2 01:21
Stoppage - Icing
P2 01:12
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by teammate
P2 01:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P2 01:08
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 01:08
Stoppage - Icing
P2 00:18
Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P2 00:18
Penalty to Philippe Myers 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 00:00
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P1 19:26
SHOT
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P1 18:28
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P1 18:28
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 17:50
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 17:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Joseph Woll
P1 17:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Cousins
P1 17:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
P1 17:27
Stephen Halliday won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 17:27
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 17:25
SHOT
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P1 17:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P1 15:22
Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
P1 15:22
Stoppage - Offside
P1 15:16
Ridly Greig won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 15:16
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 15:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 15:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
P1 14:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P1 14:42
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P1 14:42
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Max Domi and Nicholas Robertson
0-2
P1 13:47
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P1 13:07
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 13:07
Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by William Nylander)
P1 13:07
Stoppage - TV timeout
P1 12:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
P1 09:25
SHOT
Power play - Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P1 09:17
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P1 08:26
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Joseph Woll
P1 07:50
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P1 07:23
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P1 07:23
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 07:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
P1 06:28
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P1 06:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 04:45
Drake Batherson won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 04:45
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 04:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
P1 03:01
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P1 02:08
Claude Giroux credited with hit on Bobby McMann in defensive zone
P1 01:52
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
P1 01:52
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:51
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 01:51
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 01:05
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P1 01:05
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P1 00:59
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
P1 00:59
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P1 00:40
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P1 00:39
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Auston Matthews
0-1
P1 00:16
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 00:12
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 00:12
Penalty to Fabian Zetterlund 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Auston Matthews)
P1 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
STATS
Maple Leafs
31Shots on Goal33
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
30Hits32
6Shots Blocked7
18Giveaways17
SenatorsOTT
Maple LeafsTOR
31Shots on Goal33
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
30Hits32
6Shots Blocked7
18Giveaways17

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Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators +140, Maple Leafs +115

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 51%
  • Maple Leafs: 49%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 51%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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