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Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on December 27, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
5
7
Dec 28, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
Dec 28, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Maple Leafs | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Senators | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Maple Leafs | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
P3 19:57 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 19:52 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:35 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 18:42 Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 18:38 Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P3 18:32 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:28 Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P3 18:23 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:21 Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 15:25 Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 14:43 Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 14:30 Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:46 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 12:20 Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 11:56 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 11:47 Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
P3 11:35 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
Power play - Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Penalty to Jake Sanderson 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Scott Laughton)
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Leevi Merilainen
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by teammate
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Morgan Rielly and Matias Maccelli
4-6
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Tim Stutzle
4-5
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
Stoppage - Hand Pass
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Penalty to Drake Batherson 2 minutes for Misconduct
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
Nick Cousins credited with hit on Troy Stecher in defensive zone
Giveaway by Leevi Merilainen in defensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Nikolas Matinpalo credited with hit on Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Drake Batherson assisted by Dylan Cozens and Brady Tkachuk
3-5
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Bobby McMann
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot missed by David Perron
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Claude Giroux
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Shot missed by Senators
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
SHOT
Nicolas Roy shot blocked by teammate
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Max Domi and Jake McCabe
2-4
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
Max Domi won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
Penalty to Philippe Myers 2 minutes for Misconduct
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
SHOT
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Cousins
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
Stephen Halliday won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Ridly Greig won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Max Domi and Nicholas Robertson
0-2
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by William Nylander)
Stoppage - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Power play - Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Bobby McMann
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Joseph Woll
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
Drake Batherson won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
Claude Giroux credited with hit on Bobby McMann in defensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Auston Matthews
0-1
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Penalty to Fabian Zetterlund 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Auston Matthews)
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 56% | Faceoff Win % | 44% | |||
| 1/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 30 | Hits | 32 | |||
| 6 | Shots Blocked | 7 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 17 |
| |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 33 | |||
| 56% | Faceoff Win % | 44% | |||
| 1/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 8 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 30 | Hits | 32 | |||
| 6 | Shots Blocked | 7 | |||
| 18 | Giveaways | 17 |
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Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Senators vs. Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6
- Moneyline Odds: Senators +140, Maple Leafs +115
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Senators: 51%
- Maple Leafs: 49%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 51%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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