Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on December 27, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Senators
5
7
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123T
Senators
1 1 3 5
Maple Leafs
2 3 2 7
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Senators
    0%
  • Maple Leafs
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
1 1 3 5
Maple Leafs
2 3 2 7
P3 19:57 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 19:52 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 19:35 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 18:42 Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 18:38 Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P3 18:32 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:28 Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P3 18:23 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:15 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:21 Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 15:25 Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 14:43 Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 14:30 Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:46 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 12:20 Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
P3 11:56 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
P3 11:47 Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
P3 11:35 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  3. P3 19:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  4. P3 19:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  5. P3 19:46
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  6. P3 19:46
    Stoppage - Icing
  7. P3 19:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  8. P3 18:44
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  9. P3 18:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Leevi Merilainen
  10. P3 18:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  11. P3 18:32
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
  12. P3 18:30
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  13. P3 18:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  14. P3 18:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  15. P3 18:24
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  16. P3 18:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  17. P3 18:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  18. P3 17:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  19. P3 17:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  20. P3 16:49
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  21. P3 16:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  22. P3 16:21
    SHOT
    Bobby McMann shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  23. P3 15:27
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  24. P3 15:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  25. P3 15:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
  26. P3 14:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
  27. P3 14:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by teammate
  28. P3 13:51
    Power play - Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  29. P3 13:46
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
  30. P3 13:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
  31. P3 12:46
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  32. P3 12:46
    Penalty to Jake Sanderson 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Scott Laughton)
  33. P3 12:20
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Michael Amadio
  34. P3 11:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
  35. P3 11:47
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Jordan Spence
  36. P3 11:44
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  37. P3 11:44
    Stoppage - Icing
  38. P3 11:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
  39. P3 11:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
  40. P3 10:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  41. P3 10:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Leevi Merilainen
  42. P3 10:11
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  43. P3 10:11
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  44. P3 09:18
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  45. P3 09:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  46. P3 09:15
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by teammate
  47. P3 07:57
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  48. P3 07:57
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  49. P3 07:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  50. P3 06:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
  51. P3 06:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
  52. P3 05:53
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  53. P3 05:53
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Morgan Rielly and Matias Maccelli
    4-6
  54. P3 05:21
    John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  55. P3 05:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  56. P3 05:07
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
  57. P3 05:05
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Tim Stutzle
    4-5
  58. P3 04:49
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  59. P3 04:49
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  60. P3 04:25
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  61. P3 04:25
    Stoppage - Icing
  62. P3 04:18
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
  63. P3 04:18
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  64. P3 02:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
  65. P3 02:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
  66. P3 02:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Artem Zub
  67. P3 02:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
  68. P3 01:47
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  69. P3 01:47
    Penalty to Drake Batherson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  70. P3 01:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  71. P3 01:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
  72. P3 01:15
    Nick Cousins credited with hit on Troy Stecher in defensive zone
  73. P3 00:57
    Giveaway by Leevi Merilainen in defensive zone
  74. P3 00:46
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  75. P3 00:46
    Stoppage - Offside
  76. P3 00:29
    Nikolas Matinpalo credited with hit on Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
  77. P3 00:14
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  78. P3 00:12
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Drake Batherson assisted by Dylan Cozens and Brady Tkachuk
    3-5
  79. P3 00:00
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  80. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  81. P2 19:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  82. P2 19:31
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
  83. P2 19:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  84. P2 19:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  85. P2 18:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  86. P2 18:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
  87. P2 17:32
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  88. P2 17:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
  89. P2 17:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
  90. P2 17:32
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 17:11
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  92. P2 17:11
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  93. P2 17:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
  94. P2 16:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
  95. P2 16:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
  96. P2 16:05
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  97. P2 16:00
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  98. P2 16:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  99. P2 15:33
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  100. P2 15:33
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  101. P2 15:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Leevi Merilainen
  102. P2 14:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by David Perron
  103. P2 14:39
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  104. P2 14:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  105. P2 14:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
  106. P2 14:21
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  107. P2 14:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  108. P2 14:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
  109. P2 13:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  110. P2 13:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Leevi Merilainen
  111. P2 12:07
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
  112. P2 12:01
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Claude Giroux
  113. P2 12:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
  114. P2 11:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Leevi Merilainen
  115. P2 11:54
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  116. P2 11:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  117. P2 11:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Leevi Merilainen
  118. P2 11:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Senators
  119. P2 09:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Leevi Merilainen
  120. P2 09:17
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  121. P2 09:17
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  122. P2 08:32
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  123. P2 08:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Leevi Merilainen
  124. P2 08:29
    SHOT
    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by teammate
  125. P2 07:28
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
  126. P2 07:28
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Max Domi and Jake McCabe
    2-4
  127. P2 07:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Linus Ullmark
  128. P2 07:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  129. P2 07:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  130. P2 06:29
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  131. P2 06:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  132. P2 05:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
  133. P2 05:05
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  134. P2 05:05
    Stoppage - Icing
  135. P2 04:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Xavier Bourgault
  136. P2 04:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Joseph Woll
  137. P2 03:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  138. P2 03:28
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  139. P2 03:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  140. P2 03:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  141. P2 03:20
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
  142. P2 03:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  143. P2 03:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  144. P2 03:05
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
  145. P2 03:01
    Max Domi won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  146. P2 03:01
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  147. P2 03:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
  148. P2 02:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  149. P2 02:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
  150. P2 02:31
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
  151. P2 02:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark
  152. P2 01:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  153. P2 01:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
  154. P2 01:21
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  155. P2 01:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  156. P2 01:12
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by teammate
  157. P2 01:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
  158. P2 01:08
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  159. P2 01:08
    Stoppage - Icing
  160. P2 00:18
    Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  161. P2 00:18
    Penalty to Philippe Myers 2 minutes for Misconduct
  162. P2 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
  163. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  164. P1 19:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  165. P1 19:26
    SHOT
    Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  166. P1 18:28
    John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  167. P1 18:28
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  168. P1 17:50
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  169. P1 17:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Senators saved by Joseph Woll
  170. P1 17:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Cousins
  171. P1 17:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
  172. P1 17:27
    Stephen Halliday won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  173. P1 17:27
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  174. P1 17:25
    SHOT
    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  175. P1 17:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  176. P1 15:22
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  177. P1 15:22
    Stoppage - Offside
  178. P1 15:16
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  179. P1 15:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  180. P1 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
  181. P1 15:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
  182. P1 14:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
  183. P1 14:42
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  184. P1 14:42
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Matthew Knies assisted by Max Domi and Nicholas Robertson
    0-2
  185. P1 13:47
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  186. P1 13:07
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  187. P1 13:07
    Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by William Nylander)
  188. P1 13:07
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  189. P1 12:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
  190. P1 09:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Bobby McMann
  191. P1 09:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  192. P1 08:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Joseph Woll
  193. P1 07:50
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  194. P1 07:23
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  195. P1 07:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  196. P1 07:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Xavier Bourgault saved by Joseph Woll
  197. P1 06:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
  198. P1 06:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
  199. P1 04:45
    Drake Batherson won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  200. P1 04:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  201. P1 04:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
  202. P1 03:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  203. P1 02:08
    Claude Giroux credited with hit on Bobby McMann in defensive zone
  204. P1 01:52
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  205. P1 01:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  206. P1 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
  207. P1 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
  208. P1 01:05
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  209. P1 01:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  210. P1 00:59
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  211. P1 00:59
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  212. P1 00:40
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  213. P1 00:39
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Auston Matthews
    0-1
  214. P1 00:16
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
  215. P1 00:12
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  216. P1 00:12
    Penalty to Fabian Zetterlund 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Auston Matthews)
  217. P1 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  218. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
STATS
Maple Leafs
31Shots on Goal33
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
30Hits32
6 Shots Blocked 7
18Giveaways17
SenatorsOTT
Maple LeafsTOR
31Shots on Goal33
56% Faceoff Win % 44%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
30Hits32
6 Shots Blocked 7
18Giveaways17

Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators +140, Maple Leafs +115

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 51%
  • Maple Leafs: 49%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 51%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.