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Thunder vs. Bucks prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [1/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks predictions for NBA Wednesday.
The Milwaukee Bucks will face the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday, commencing at 9:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Bucks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Bucks lineup will feature stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ryan Rollins and Bobby Portis, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Bucks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA game between the Thunder and Bucks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 81% chance of defeating the Bucks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 116-106.
According to our model, the Bucks (+12) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 225.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
Thunder vs. Bucks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Bucks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12 (-110) | +12 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -550 | +410 |
| Total | o225.5 (-110) | u225.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Bucks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bucks +12 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Bucks | +410 |
| Total | Under 225.5 | -106 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Bucks +12 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Bucks player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Wednesday's Oklahoma City vs. Milwaukee matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Fiserv Forum.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 32 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to have 28 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists for the Bucks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 32 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 54 |
| Chet Holmgren | 19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 39 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 32 |
| Isaiah Joe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 |
| Luguentz Dort | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Bucks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Bucks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Antetokounmpo | 28 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 56 |
| Ryan Rollins | 16 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 37 |
| Bobby Portis | 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| AJ Green | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
Thunder vs. Bucks game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Bucks and Thunder at Fiserv Forum is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat the Bucks on Wednesday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo projected for a game-high 56 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Bucks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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