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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, January 21, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Brown lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 17.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.3% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.7% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 12.6% |
| Ja Morant | Grizzlies | 12.6% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 12.2% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.2% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 11.8% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 3.4% | +600 | 17.7% |
| Corey Kispert | Hawks | 2.4% | +1400 | 9.1% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.9% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | 0.8% | +1100 | 9.2% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.8% | +850 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, January 21, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, with Antetokounmpo shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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