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Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Bucks NBA game on January 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
122
102
Jan 22, 2:30AM Fiserv Forum
Jan 22, 2:30AM Fiserv Forum
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 38 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 122 |
Bucks | 18 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 102 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 38 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 122 |
Bucks | 18 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 102 |
Q4 00:41 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:15 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:42 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:54 Bucks makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:08 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 3:37 Bucks makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:11 Bucks misses two point jump shot
Q4 4:55 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:21 Bucks makes three point jump shot
Q4 5:33 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-72
Bucks turnover
Kenrich Williams turnover
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder defensive rebound
Thunder violation
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
Bucks lineup change (Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Cole Anthony, Jericho Sims, Amir Coffey, Andre Jackson Jr.)
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
88-72
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
88-72
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-72
Bucks 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
88-72
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
88-72
Pete Nance defensive rebound
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
88-72
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-72
Thunder turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-72
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Bucks personal foul
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins)
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Thunder offensive rebound
Bucks personal foul
+3
Bucks makes three point jump shot
88-72
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cole Anthony offensive rebound
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
88-72
Bobby Portis offensive rebound
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
88-72
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
88-72
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
88-72
Bucks turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
Thunder turnover
Bucks lineup change (Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma)
Bucks misses three point jump shot
Andre Jackson Jr. misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
88-72
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
87-69
AJ Green defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, AJ Green, Cole Anthony, Andre Jackson Jr.)
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
86-67
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
86-69
Bucks misses two point jump shot
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
83-67
Ryan Rollins turnover
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
AJ Green makes three point running jump shot (Bobby Portis assists)
83-67
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Kyle Kuzma makes two point jump shot
79-61
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Luguentz Dort makes two point jump shot
83-67
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses two point tip layup
Chet Holmgren misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Instant replay
+1
AJ Green makes technical free throw 1 of 1
86-69
Cason Wallace misses flagrant free throw 1 of 2
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Bucks misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving finger roll layup
86-69
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
83-67
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell turnover
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Bucks offensive rebound
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma)
Giannis Antetokounmpo misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
83-67
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma)
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Chris Youngblood, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (out of bounds step)
Pete Nance turnover (bad pass) (Brooks Barnhizer steals)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
69-50
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Brooks Barnhizer, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Thunder personal foul
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Cole Anthony shooting foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
83-67
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
69-50
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
66-48
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Kenrich Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
83-67
+2
Bucks makes two point jump shot
69-50
Ajay Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Ryan Rollins steals)
+3
Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Ryan Rollins assists)
69-50
Kenrich Williams misses two point jump shot
+3
Bobby Portis makes three point jump shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)
69-50
Bucks personal foul
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Bucks turnover
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Pete Nance misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
57-36
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, Cole Anthony, Ryan Rollins)
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Ryan Rollins misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
74-54
Chet Holmgren misses two point pullup jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
+2
Luguentz Dort makes two point layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
52-34
+3
Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Pete Nance assists)
50-34
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
+3
Kenrich Williams makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
50-31
+3
Ryan Rollins makes three point jump shot (Cole Anthony assists)
47-31
Ryan Rollins misses three point jump shot
Bucks defensive rebound
Branden Carlson misses three point jump shot
+2
Kyle Kuzma makes two point cutting layup (Cole Anthony assists)
45-28
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Kyle Kuzma misses three point running jump shot
+3
Cole Anthony makes three point jump shot (Bobby Portis assists)
43-26
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point stepback jump shot
43-23
Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Bobby Portis draws the foul)
+2
Bobby Portis makes two point running layup
40-22
+2
Pete Nance makes two point tip layup
40-20
Cole Anthony misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point alley-oop layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
40-18
Kyle Kuzma shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Gary Trent Jr. misses three point jump shot
+3
Pete Nance makes three point jump shot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)
35-18
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
+2
Isaiah Joe makes two point pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
33-15
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Brooks Barnhizer, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Branden Carlson, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
+3
Isaiah Joe makes three point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
31-15
Bobby Portis defensive rebound
+2
Cole Anthony makes two point fadeaway jump shot
28-13
+3
Pete Nance makes three point jump shot (Gary Harris assists)
26-11
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Ajay Mitchell makes three point stepback jump shot
26-8
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point running layup
23-6
AJ Green misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
Jump ball. Cason Wallace vs. Cole Anthony (Isaiah Joe gains possession)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace)
Chet Holmgren misses three point running jump shot
+3
Ajay Mitchell makes three point jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)
21-6
Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive foul (Charge) (Isaiah Joe draws the foul)
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Ryan Rollins turnover (bad pass) (Luguentz Dort steals)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point cutting layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
16-6
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
+2
Luguentz Dort makes two point pullup jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
14-6
+1
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
12-6
Luguentz Dort shooting foul (Giannis Antetokounmpo draws the foul)
Cason Wallace misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running finger roll layup
12-5
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
+2
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point driving finger roll layup
10-5
+3
Gary Harris makes three point jump shot (AJ Green assists)
7-3
AJ Green turnover (offensive foul)
Bucks 60 second timeout
Ryan Rollins turnover (bad pass) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Bucks lineup change (Giannis Antetokounmpo, AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Kyle Kuzma, Gary Harris)
Thunder lineup change (Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | C. Youngblood | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 13 | O. Dieng | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| G-F | 34 | K. Williams | 18 | 8 | 2 |
| C | 15 | B. Carlson | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| G | 23 | B. Barnhizer | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 43 | T. Antetokounmpo | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 44 | A. Jackson Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| G-F | 17 | A. Coffey | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 50 | C. Anthony | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| C | 0 | J. Sims | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game Prediction Article
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Thunder vs. Bucks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Bucks
- Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -12
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -550, Bucks +500
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 81%
- Bucks: 19%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 117-106 Bucks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 81%, while the Bucks have a win probability of 19%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Bucks in the NBA game at Fiserv Forum on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Bucks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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