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Thunder vs. Cavaliers prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [1/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers predictions for NBA Monday.
NBA action continues on Monday at 2:30 PM ET as the favored Oklahoma City Thunder square off with the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Cavaliers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Cavaliers lineup will feature players like Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jaylon Tyson, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Cavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Cavaliers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 68% chance of defeating the Cavaliers. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 116-111.
According to our model, the Cavaliers (+6) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 229.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Cavaliers odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6 (-110) | +6 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -220 | +185 |
| Total | o229.5 (-110) | u229.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Cavaliers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cavaliers +6 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -220 |
| Total | Under 229.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Cavaliers +6 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Cavaliers player props
Looking for Thunder vs. Cavaliers NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Rocket Arena.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Donovan Mitchell is projected to have 28 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Cavaliers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Chet Holmgren | 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 40 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Isaiah Joe | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
Cavaliers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Cavaliers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell | 28 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 50 |
| Evan Mobley | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 40 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 15 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
| Jarrett Allen | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
Thunder vs. Cavs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Cavaliers and Thunder at Rocket Arena is scheduled to begin at 2:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Date: Monday, January 19, 2026
- Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
- Venue: Rocket Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Cavaliers on Monday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Cavaliers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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