Islanders vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/6/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will square off with the NY Islanders in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Islanders vs. Lightning game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Isles vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL game between the Islanders and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 59% chance of beating the Islanders.

According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Islanders vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Islanders	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-192)	-1.5 (+172)
Moneyline	+122	-142
Total	o6 (-115)	u6 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Islanders vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+172
Moneyline	Lightning	-142
Total	Under 6	-105

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.

Islanders vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Islanders vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Islanders vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 47.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 10.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Bo Horvat	36.2%
Anders Lee	28.4%
Mathew Barzal	24.8%
Max Shabanov	21.6%
Emil Heineman	21.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	47.2%
Brandon Hagel	43.2%
Anthony Cirelli	30.1%
Nick Paul	26.2%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	18.4%

First goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

Player	First Goal Probability
Bo Horvat	8.2%
Anders Lee	5.2%
Mathew Barzal	4.4%
Max Shabanov	4.0%
Simon Holmstrom	3.6%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	10.6%
Brandon Hagel	9.1%
Anthony Cirelli	5.2%
Nick Paul	4.8%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	3.3%

Isles vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Lightning and Islanders at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: NY Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Islanders vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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