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Islanders vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [12/6/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and NY Islanders will meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 7:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Islanders vs. Lightning game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Isles vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Islanders and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 59% chance of defeating the Islanders.
According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 52% chance of staying under.
Islanders vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Islanders | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +126 | -148 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Islanders vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +164 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | -148 |
| Total | Under 6 | -105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.
Islanders vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Islanders vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Islanders vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 46.5% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 36.2% |
| Anders Lee | 27.5% |
| Mathew Barzal | 25.0% |
| Max Shabanov | 23.2% |
| Emil Heineman | 20.7% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 46.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 42.6% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 31.6% |
| Nick Paul | 25.7% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 18.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 8.2% |
| Anders Lee | 5.7% |
| Mathew Barzal | 4.7% |
| Max Shabanov | 4.2% |
| Emil Heineman | 3.8% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 8.5% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 5.6% |
| Nick Paul | 5.3% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3.5% |
Isles vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Lightning and Islanders at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: NY Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
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Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Islanders vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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