NFL Week 8 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Tight Ends Day, Aaron Rodgers vs. Packers

We're officially in Week 8 of the NFL season, and almost halfway through the 2025 campaign. Even with six teams on bye this week, there are countless NFL Picks, Best Bets, and major NFL betting storylines to dig into, from Tight Ends Day to Aaron Rodgers' facing his former team, the Green Bay Packers.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions.

To help set you up for each upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests, all while utilizing the valuable Dimers Pro data available across Dimers.com.

Our Survivor picks are on a perfect 7-0 run, while the Moneyline and Spreads picks featured in this weekly guide are 8-4 through the season.

Let's stay hot and dive into Week 8!

NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Storylines, and Survivor Picks

Bears backfield breakdown

The Bears’ backfield presents one of Week 8’s most intriguing opportunities against a Ravens defense that’s been exploitable on the ground, giving up 134.3 rushing yards per game and nine touchdowns — both bottom-three marks in the league — setting up potential big days for both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

The Dimers Pro model projects Swift for 61.4 rushing and 21.4 receiving yards with a 40.7% anytime touchdown probability, while Monangai checks in with 22.4 rushing, 6.9 receiving, and a 19.5% touchdown chance.

The Ravens did manage to hold the Rams to just 74 rushing yards before their bye, but that looks like more of an outlier than a trend. They’ll get Roquan Smith back this week, and while the “revenge game” narrative adds some spice as he faces his former team, the Bears’ ground attack has been trending upward, looking more dynamic each week. It’s hard to bank on a sudden defensive turnaround from Baltimore when the Bears’ running game has been this efficient.

The key variable here is Swift’s health. He’s listed as questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice and logging only limited work Thursday.

No lines are currently posted for Monangai, but if Swift sits, Monangai becomes an instant upside play. If both suit up, targeting a touchdown from each back could pay off nicely given the matchup and their combined usage.

🏈 Bears-Ravens full game prediction

Aaron Rodgers faces the Packers

More than two seasons removed from his Green Bay tenure, Aaron Rodgers will face his former team, the Green Bay Packers.

The Steelers welcome his old club into Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football as Rodgers enters what will surely be one of his most motivated games of his career.

Rodgers has downplayed the "revenge" narrative of this game, but to think he doesn't want to win this one just a bit more would be naive. He's a fiery competitor who holds a grudge and likes to make a statement.

Per the Dimers model, Rodgers projects for 222.2 passing yards and 16.5 fantasy points. Packers' opponents have thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of their past five games, and Rodgers has thrown for six touchdowns in his past two games. Top wideout DK Metcalf projects for a 36% probability to score an anytime TD and a 7.5% probability to score twice.

From a game standpoint, our model projects a 50/50 coin flip on the Steelers to cover the +3 spread, but a 55% probability to go under 45.5 points on Sunday night.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Steelers-Packers on SNF

Top betting angles in Cowboys-Broncos

The Cowboys-Broncos matchup brings one of the most interesting betting storylines of Week 8: the Broncos’ elite defense, ranked third in total yards and tied for fewest touchdowns allowed, against the Cowboys’ high-octane offense that ranks second in both yards and total touchdowns.

The Underdog/Over pairing has cashed in all but one game this year, with a plus-money same-game parlay hitting repeatedly.

The Dimers model backs that pattern again, giving Dallas a 58.9% probability to cover and a 54.2% chance for the game to go over the total.

In terms of player props, the Broncos’ passing distribution suggests potential value beyond Courtland Sutton.

Sutton is projected for 65 yards, but rookie Troy Franklin stands out as a strong secondary option at 38 projected yards, while fellow wideout Marvin Mims projects for 36. Notably, Franklin has seen 50% more targets than Mims.

Additionally, Bo Nix’s rushing prop appears worth a look as the Cowboys allow the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Nix has logged 5+ carries in five of seven games and is projected for 27 yards, making his 25+ line at plus money a worthy play.

🏈 Cowboys-Broncos Player Prop Projections

Tight Ends Day: Who will score a Touchdown?

Last year on NFL's Tight Ends Day, 17 total touchdowns were scored by the position, totaling 177 receptions. Two tight ends caught a pair of TDs, Cade Otton and Kyle Pitts in a head-to-head matchup.

George Kittle founded this pseudo-holiday, and it's been embraced by fans, the league, and the players.

Could we be in store for another big day by the tight ends? The Dimers model identifies some big potential:

Tight Ends projected for over 50 yards: Tyler Warren, George Kittle, Tucker Kraft

Tight Ends with over a 35% probability to score: Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Travis Kelce

Tight Ends projected for the most receptions: Jake Ferguson, Tyler Warren, Dalton Schultz

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and the bets featured in this article are on an 8-4 run so far this season.

Below, you will find the current top probability and best edge from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend.

Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (-115 on DraftKings)

The Dimers model gives Dallas a 58.9% chance to cover at +3.5, a 5.4% edge over the book line.

The spread has moved around between +3 and +3.5, and bettors should look for the extra half points when possible.

Catching Dallas’ high-powered offense against Denver’s top-tier defense at more than a field goal is valuable in what’s likely to be a one-score game. The Cowboys have been competitive in every outing this season, losing by more than one possession just once.

Prop-wise, RB RJ Harvey’s receiving yards may be worth targeting, as the Cowboys allow the second-most to opposing running backs, averaging nearly seven RB targets per game.

With JK Dobbins seeing minimal receiving usage (no more than one catch since Week 1), Harvey could quietly outperform his 17.4-yard projection, particularly at even money for 15+. If you can find a first-quarter prop, that’s an ideal spot to strike early.

🏈 Cowboys-Broncos Full Game Predictions

Bet: Bears +6.5 @ Ravens (-110 on BetMGM)

With a 57% probability and a 4.6% edge from the Dimers model, Bears +6.5 ranks among the best Week 8 value plays. 

Lamar Jackson is trending toward a return, in what surprisingly will be his first career start against the Bears, but the matchup dynamics still favor Chicago, who are playing their most cohesive football of the season.

Baltimore has one of the league’s lowest sack totals, which should give rookie QB Caleb Williams time to work, while the Bears’ offense continues to find rhythm.

Although Chicago has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league, they’ve only conceded four rushing touchdowns, showing a bend-but-don’t-break profile. 

Derrick Henry is projected for over 90 yards and a 60% touchdown probability, but outside of that, Baltimore’s offensive outlook looks shaky. If the Ravens stall out in the red zone, there could be room for a Chicago upset.

🏈 Bears-Ravens full game prediction

Rachaad White Anytime TD Scorer (-115 on bet365)

Rachaad White projects as one of the most likely touchdown scorers heading into Week 8, carrying a 61% anytime TD probability — the highest among running backs in this range.

White has found the end zone four times this season, including three in his last three games. With Bucky Irving still sidelined, White’s workload remains secure, averaging 16+ combined carries and targets per game during that stretch.

The Saints’ defense is another factor working in White’s favor: they’re allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game and have surrendered multiple rushing scores in three separate contests.

The Dimers model even finds value on his multi-TD props, with a +500 line for 2+ touchdowns (24.8% probability) and +2500 for 3+ (7.2%). Given his recent form, dual-threat role, and favorable matchup, White stands out as one of the best anytime touchdown bets on the board for Week 8.

🏈 Full game preview for Bucs vs. Saints

Week 8 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 8, and we haven't missed a Survivor pick yet!

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Colts (90%) vs. Titans

2️⃣ Chiefs (81%) vs. Commanders

3️⃣ Patriots (76%) vs. Browns

4️⃣ Falcons (75%) vs. Dolphins

5️⃣ Eagles (74%) vs. Giants

Editor's pick: Some good choices here - we've used up our Top 2 already, and I like to avoid division games - take the Falcons vs a Dolphins team in freefall.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ 

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Cowboys +3.5 (59%) @ Broncos

2️⃣ Texans -1.5 (58%) vs. 49ers

3️⃣ Bears +6.5 (57%) @ Ravens

4️⃣ Dolphins +7.5 (56%) @ Falcons

5️⃣ Bengals -6 (54%) vs. Jets

Editor's pick: Ride with our top pick this week and back the Cowboys in what should be one of the best games of the week.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️| WK6 Falcons +5 ✅ | WK7 Panthers -1.5 ✅

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 8 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 8 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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