NFL Week 18 Touchdown Picks: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

It's the NFL regular season finale!

Betting on touchdown scorers in Week 18 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting, especially when taking the top TD scorers to find the end zone not once, but twice.

When at least three multi-touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 18 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As it does every week of the NFL season, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzed matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify every player's probability of scoring 2+ touchdowns on Sunday.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub primarily focuses on a mix of positions and features five players who have found scoring success in recent weeks and get favorable matchups on Sunday.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous touchdown Round Robin, made up of five multiple TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 18 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL Touchdown Scorers: Week 18 (Sunday, January 4, 2025)

As opposed to first touchdown bets that come with even shorter odds, we're getting either close to fair odds or a Dimers-identified value play on each of these players, with odds ranging from +295 to +850.

We have analyzed these five players, their respective probability of scoring multiple touchdowns, the current odds, and the reasons why our model has tagged them as high probability touchdown bets.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Lions vs. Bears
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Soldier Field

The first player we're looking at is the most likely player to score multiple touchdowns in Week 18, according to the Dimers model, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Gibbs has five multi-TD games this season, four of which he scored three times, and he gets a 30.9% probability to score twice this week vs. the Bears for fair odds of +225.

While his production has slowed over the last few weeks as the Lions were eliminated from postseason contention, they have plenty of motivation in Week 18, as they hope to avoid a loss to Bears HC and their former OC Ben Johnson, who will be looking to secure the No. 2 seed for Chicago.

As 3.5-point underdogs, the Lions are still expected to play their starters for this game unless the scoring gets out of hand.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ TD odds: +330

2. Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Ravens vs. Steelers
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

Our next player rounds out the Top 5 most likely multi-touchdown scorers of Week 18, Ravens RB Derrick Henry.

Henry just had one of the best games of his entire career, recording 216 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a must-win game for Baltimore. Now, they enter another must-win game vs. their division rival Steelers.

Henry has five multi-touchdown games this year, including in back-to-back weeks. The Steelers have an excellent rushing defense, but Henry and the run game have been the only thing working for the Ravens in recent weeks - Lamar Jackson has just four total touchdowns in his past six games.

Henry gets a 21.7% probability to find the end zone twice according to our model.

Derrick Henry 2+ TD odds: +390

3. Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Saints vs. Falcons
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Falcons superstar RB Bijan Robinson is also entering this game off one of the best performances in his career, tallying 229 yards and two touchdowns in a stunner vs. the Rams.

The Falcons will look to end the year on a high note with four straight wins as Robinson also finds himself in range, albeit with a big gap, of Chris Johnson's NFL record of 2,509 scrimmage yards in a season.

He needs a whopping 255 yards to do so, but Atlanta should feature him heavily as they always do, indicated by a projection of over 120 total yards and a 19.4% 2+ TD probability.

Bijan Robinson 2+ TD odds: +295

4. Tank Bigsby (Eagles)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Commanders vs. Eagles
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

When the Eagles take on the Commanders this Sunday, it won't be Saquon Barkley taking the carries but backup RB Tank Bigsby as Philadelphia rests its starters.

Bigsby hasn't played very much this season, but has shown his upside in his highest volume spots. He scored on a big 22-yard run two weeks ago vs. this Washington team and recorded a 9-carry, 104-yard performance vs. the Giants earlier this season, both in relief of Saquon.

Notably, both of those are among the league's worst rushing defenses, which he'll get another crack at on Sunday - Washington ranks 30th vs. RBs in the NFL since Week 9, allowing 1.4 TDs to the position per game.

Bigsby draws a 13.4% probability of scoring twice on Sunday for fair odds of +650.

Tank Bigsby 2+ TD odds: +900

5. Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Dolphins vs. Patriots
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

Finally, we're looking at Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson to score a pair of touchdowns for the second straight week and third time this season.

Stevenson has ceded playing time to rookie RB TreVeyeon Henderson, but Henderson has slowed down in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Stevenson has remained efficient in a reduced role, scoring three touchdowns in his past two games, and significantly outproducing Henderson by YPC, and our model gives Stevenson a 5% higher probability to score an anytime touchdown and a 12.0% probability to score twice compared to 8.9%.

He'll face a Dolphins defense which has improved vs. the run but retains vulnerabilities, giving up four RB touchdowns vs. the Bengals in Week 16 and two rushing scores vs. the Steelers in Week 15.

Fair odds for Stevenson would be just +730 to score a pair of touchdowns vs. Miami.

Rhamondre Stevenson 2+ TD odds: +850

NFL Touchdown Scorers: Week 18 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a 2+ touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score 2 or more TD in their respective games.

Alternatively, you can play a five-leg Anytime TD parlay at +2052 odds with each player to record just one touchdown at any point in the game.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL 2+ touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 18. The total potential payout for a small stake on this touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.