NFL Week 16 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Cowboys face elimination, Quinn Ewers starts, division battles

Tua benched, Quinn Ewers starts

Rookie QB Quinn Ewers will make his first NFL start in Week 16 after the Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa ahead of their matchup with the Bengals, a move that comes after several weeks of declining passing efficiency.

Miami has increasingly leaned on its run game to stay competitive, and Dimers projections reflect a conservative approach with Ewers under center, built around short throws, play-action and ball control rather than aggressive volume passing.

Ewers is projected for 17.3 completions and 189.4 passing yards, with limited rushing upside but a small 10.3% chance to score an anytime TD.

RB De’Von Achane remains the clear engine of the offense, projecting for over 110 total yards and carrying the highest touchdown probability on the roster at 56.0%.

WR Jaylen Waddle profiles as Ewers’ top target, while TE Darren Waller and WR Malik Washington fill steady, complementary roles underneath. Overall, the projections suggest Miami’s offense looks functional despite the quarterback change, with the run game and quick passing attack doing enough to keep the Dolphins competitive and drawing a 54% probability to cover +4.5 vs. Cincinnati's league-worst defense.

🏈 Dolphins vs. Bengals full game prediction

Cowboys face elimination from the playoffs

The Cowboys grade out as a strong moneyline play this week in the Dimers model, carrying a 59.9% win probability against the Chargers.

That said, there’s a very real chance Dallas takes the field already eliminated from playoff contention., thrusting the team's motivation into question. The Dimers model gives the Eagles a 67% chance to beat Washington on Saturday, which would clinch the NFC East and effectively end the Cowboys’ postseason hopes barring a major upset.

If Washington does pull the upset, Dallas’ path remains narrow: win out while the Eagles lose out.

Meanwhile, the Chargers still have plenty at stake, clinging to their playoff positioning and potentially setting up a Week 18 divisional showdown vs. Denver with a division title on the line if things break right.

From a props perspective, Los Angeles’ elite pass defense makes Cowboys receiving overs unattractive, while Chargers pass-catchers like Ladd McConkey or Quentin Johnston if active, could find big success against a porous secondary.

🏈 Cowboys vs. Chargers Player Prop Projections

Division races on the line

Currently, there are five division races with a one-game lead or less that can be impacted entering Sunday: The Bears (10-4) and Packers (9-4-1) in the NFC North, the Patriots (11-3) and Bills (10-4) in the AFC East, the Jaguars (10-4) and Texans (9-5) in the AFC South, the Steelers (8-6) and Ravens (7-7) and the Buccaneers (7-7) and Panthers (7-7) in the NFC South.

That's a whole lot of futures potential up in the air in Week 16.

Out of these, two divisions will see the teams go head-to-head this week: Bucs vs. Panthers and Bears vs. Packers.

While our model gives the Packers a nominal 46% edge over the Bears at 45.2% to win the NFC North, we get value on Chicago to beat the Packers this week, which would put them a full game and a half over the Packers with two games to go, making the +110 on Chicago to win the NFC North appealing, as it would shift to minus odds with a Bears win on Saturday.

In Bucs-Panthers, we get a 39% probability for Carolina to win on Sunday at +136, but 23.5% for them to win the division at +290, a closer play at fair odds.

As far as value to win the division, that lies on the Bills whose 40.7% probability makes fair odds of +145, yet they are available at +210. If the Bills win (85% probability) and the Patriots lose (58% probability), they would be tied, making Buffalo to win the AFC East worth a look.

🏈 Dimers NFL Futures

NFL Best Bets for Week 16

Our top model edges are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and we're currently looking to improve our 7-4 run dating back to Week 12.

Bet: Eagles-Commanders Over 44.5

Totals haven’t been a major focus in this article this season, but Eagles–Commanders Over 44.5 stands out as it draws our brand-new Dimers Sweet Spot signal.

The Dimers model gives this over a 54.6% probability with a 3.4% edge, with NFL Totals in this edge range delivering a 8.4% ROI this season.

Philadelphia comes in off a dominant 31–0 get-right win over the Raiders, while Washington fields one of the league’s weakest defenses but still remains capable offensively.

The over has cashed in nine Commanders games and six Eagles games this season, and the matchup sets up for scoring on both sides.

The Eagles could push 30 points again, while Washington should be able to move the ball against a Philly defense that’s been vulnerable on the ground.

WR Terry McLaurin has consistently produced against the Eagles, and with all of Philadelphia’s top touchdown options carrying 33% or higher scoring probabilities, this game profiles as one where points pile up quickly.

🏈 Eagles-Commanders Full Game Predictions

Bet: Cardinals +2.5 vs. Falcons

Cardinals +2.5 was an early-week value play and continues to hold strong, carrying a 58.2% probability and a 7.7% edge in the Dimers model.

Arizona isn’t a good team, but the offense has been noticeably more functional with QB Jacoby Brissett under center. He’s spreading the ball around effectively, elevating all three of WR Michael Wilson, WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride.

The concern is the defense, which has allowed 30+ points in four of the last six games.

Atlanta could also get a boost if WR Drake London (questionable) returns, which would make this a tougher matchup alongside TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson.

Still, the Falcons aren’t exactly reliable either, having surrendered 30+ points in three of their last five game, opening the door for a Cardinals cover.

From a props angle, Atlanta’s defense has been a WR funnel, allowing over 180 receiving yards to the position over the past five weeks, setting up Wilson or Harrison Jr. (questionable) as big upside plays.

🏈 Cardinals vs. Falcons full game prediction

Bet: Jaguars +3.5 @ Broncos

Jaguars +3.5 at Denver is one of the more intriguing plays on the board, checking in at a 58.9% probability with a 6.5% edge, moving by a half-point in our favor since featuring this bet on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

The model also leans slightly to the under 46.5, making this a fun game to handicap from multiple angles

Jacksonville has won five straight, most by comfortable margins, and while the competition hasn’t been elite, they’re playing their best football of the season heading into a road matchup with the AFC’s top seed.

Denver hasn’t lost since Week 3, but their defense has shown cracks lately, allowing over 260 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs per game since Week 11, and surviving several narrow wins against inferior opponents.

QB Trevor Lawrence enters on the best three-game stretch of his career, while the Jaguars’ defense has quietly been one of the league’s best over that same span. If Jacksonville can continue limiting turnovers, this shapes up as a tight, competitive game, especially with the Broncos potentially looking ahead to key divisional matchups in the weeks to come.

🏈 Jaguars vs. Broncos prop picks and best bets

Week 16 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Texans (94%) vs. Raiders

2️⃣ Bills (85%) @ Browns

3️⃣ Eagles (70%) vs. Commanders

4️⃣ Lions (70%) vs. Steelers

5️⃣ Saints (70%) vs. Jets

Editor's pick: You have two options from the top 5, the Eagles or the Saints in one of the rare spots you'd be willing to back them. Go with the Eagles who get a great defensive matchup.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️ | WK10 Bills ✖️ | WK11 Ravens ✅ | WK12 Seahawks ✅ | WK13 No pick | WK14 Broncos ✅ | WK15 Jaguars ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Jaguars +3.5 (59%) @ Broncos

2️⃣ Cardinals +2.5 (58%) vs. Falcons

3️⃣ Giants +2.5 (58%) vs. Vikings

4️⃣ Jets +6.5 (58%) @ Saints

5️⃣ Commanders +7 (58%) vs. Eagles

Last week's picks: Bengals +2.5 ✖️, Commanders +2.5 ✅, Cowboys -5.5 ✖️, Packers -2 ✖️, Dolphins +3 ✖️

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 16 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.