NFL Week 15 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Philip Rivers in line to start, Chiefs face elimination

Philip Rivers poised to make first start in five  years

The Philip Rivers–Colts saga has taken over the Week 15 narrative, and what once looked like a longshot now appears increasingly real as he looks to be Indy's starter for Week 15.

Despite Riley Leonard logging a full practice on Wednesday, betting markets have shifted entirely toward Rivers as the expected starter, and our model reflects the same assumption.

With Rivers, Indianapolis holds a 54% probability to cover +13.5, offering a modest edge at even money. But outside of the spread, expectations are bleak: no Colts pass-catcher clears even a 22% TD probability and none project for more than 40 receiving yards.

Jonathan Taylor’s projection looks solid with 82 rushing yards and a 55% TD probability, but that would be one of his lowest projections of the year.

Earlier in the season, this matchup would have featured the top two Offensive Player of the Year candidates; instead, it’s shaping up to be Rivers attempting an unexpected comeback while Jonathan Taylor watches Jaxon Smith-Njigba sprint away with an award he was once favored to win.

🏈 Colts-Seahawks full game prediction

Chiefs face first playoff elimination in Mahomes era

Is the dynasty in dire trouble?

The Chiefs can be eliminated from playoff contention this week, the first time they would miss the postseason in the Mahomes era, and the path isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds.

Multiple scenarios exist, though the most plausible involves four results:

• Chargers beat the Chiefs (29%)
• Jaguars beat the Jets (90%)
• Bills beat the Patriots (57%)
• Texans beat the Cardinals (78%)

The latter three are all reasonable outcomes strongly favored by the Dimers model.

The big roadblock lies with the Chargers who have just a 29% win probability and have fielded one of the least productive offenses in the league.

But if they can generate turnovers in the way they beat Philadelphia last week, Kansas City suddenly looks vulnerable enough for the upset that would finally dent the dynasty.

Buffalo, meanwhile, sits at a strong 57% probability and should handle its part of the equation, and a ML parlay of the Chargers and Bills pays out at +459 odds.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Prop Projections

NFL Best Bets for Week 15

Our top model edges are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and we're currently looking to extend our 7-1 run dating back to Week 12.

Bet: Bengals +2.5 vs. Ravens

The Bengals remain one of our model’s favorite teams this season, cashing in back-to-back weeks and now looking for a third straight cover, all with Joe Burrow back under center.

With their franchise QB back, Cincinnati’s offense has erupted for 32 and 34 points in consecutive games. The defense remains wildly volatile, but the Bengals’ offensive ceiling still makes them an elite underdog target, especially in a rematch they won outright as almost touchdown underdogs just two weeks ago, and their 58.2% probability of a cover is the highest of the weekend.

Baltimore has dropped two straight, and Lamar Jackson simply doesn’t look right. The passing game is completely out of rhythm, and even Derrick Henry has topped 100 yards just once in his last five outings.

Those looking to exploit the Cincy defense without backing the Ravens can look to two notable angles, the Bengals' league-worst defense vs. tight ends, which could see a big game from Isaiah Likely with Mark Andrews questionable and their vulnerability to receiving yards by RBs - Derrick Henry tallied 44 on a long catch and run in Week 12.

🏈 Ravens-Bengals Full Game Predictions

Bet: Cowboys -5.5 vs. Vikings

Backing the Cowboys when the Dimers model finds value has been a profitable move this year.

This week, they take the stage on Sunday Night Football against a Vikings team that surged out of nowhere against a bad Commanders defense in Week 14.

Last week’s JJ McCarthy breakout might create a bit of hesitation, but the Cowboys remain the far more complete team and their defense has improved while Washington's has worsened over the course of the season.

At 57.0% to cover -5.5 at home (where they have a 4-2 record ATS), they project as one of the model's most confident picks of the week.

CeeDee Lamb has cleared concussion protocol, a huge boon for the Cowboys' offense, though Dallas may lean heavily on the run, and the matchup supports it. 

Minnesota has allowed over 100 rushing yards per game to RBs since Week 9 and owns a bottom-tier red-zone run defense.

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams leads the projections with a 52% TD probability and 75 rushing yards, as well as a Dimers model edge to score a pair of touchdowns at 17.0%.

Dallas should be far more rested after 10 days off and prepared to control this game on both sides if their leaky secondary can minimize the damage.

🏈 Cowboys vs. Vikings full game prediction

Bet: Dolphins @ Steelers

The Dolphins enter MNF on a four-game win streak and have won five of six, quietly pushing for a playoff miracle. Their best football of the season has coincided with a defense allowing no more than 17 points during the streak and an offense that has topped 30 points twice.

De’Von Achane remains the engine of the attack, and despite leaving early with a rib injury in Week 14, all signs point toward him suiting up. The Steelers, meanwhile, continue to survive by inches, nearly dropping last week if not for a late overturned TD and TD drop, and just took a big hit with EDGE TJ Watt ruled out for Monday's game.

Tua’s cold-weather track record (0–6 under 40 degrees) raises concern, but his stats in those games aren't unlike his current season production, and Miami’s game plan increasingly leans on Achane and field goals, not heavy-volume passing.

A sneaky prop angle highlighted on the podcast: Kenneth Gainwell projects as Pittsburgh’s second-leading receiver at 26 yards, behind only DK Metcalf’s 58. At plus-money for 25+ and 5+ targets in four of his last six, he could find himself racking up some yards as a passcatcher once again.

🏈 Dolphins vs. Steelers prop picks and best bets

Week 15 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

Our Week 15 spreads went 4-1, missing the sweep by just 0.5 points in the Bears-Packers game.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Jaguars (90%) vs. Jets

2️⃣ Seahawks (89%) vs. Colts

3️⃣ Eagles (88%) vs. Raiders

4️⃣ 49ers (87%) vs. Titans

5️⃣ Bears (78%) vs. Browns

Editor's pick: Three teams we haven't used yet, the Jags, 49ers and Bears, but we have to go with the top overall and back the Jags against the Jets who are starting Brady Cook in his first game.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️ | WK10 Bills ✖️ | WK11 Ravens ✅ | WK12 Seahawks ✅ | WK13 No pick | WK14 Broncos ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Bengals +2.5 (58%) vs. Ravens

2️⃣ Commanders +2.5 (58%) @ Giants

3️⃣ Cowboys -5.5 (57%) vs. Vikings

4️⃣ Packers -2 (57%) @ Broncos

5️⃣ Dolphins +3 (57%) @ Steelers

Last week's picks: Titans +4.5 ✅, Falcons +7 ✅, Chargers +2.5 ✅, Bears +6.5 ✖️, Dolphins -2.5 ✅

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 15 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 15 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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