NFL Week 15 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

1. Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Jets vs. Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. checks in with the second-highest first-touchdown probability of the entire week.

Fresh off a two-touchdown bounce-back performance after a dud in Week 13, Etienne draws one of the league’s most exploitable rushing matchups vs. the Jets, who have allowed nearly 140 rushing yards per game and 17 rushing touchdowns, tied for third most in the NFL.

That vulnerability has only intensified down the stretch, with opponents averaging almost two rushing scores per game in the second half of the season. Add in the Jets’ league-worst red-zone defense since Week 9, converting 62.5% of opponent trips into touchdowns, plus New York starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook in his first game, and Etienne profiles as a prime candidate to strike first.

Travis Etienne Jr. First TD odds: +340

2. Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Ravens vs. Bengals
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

Ravens RB Derrick Henry lands back on the board in a familiar and favorable spot after cashing a first-touchdown ticket against Cincinnati in Week 12 on a 28-yard burst.

The matchup remains just as appealing this time around, as Henry draws a 13% first touchdown probability vs. the Bengals' league-worst rushing defense by both yardage and red-zone efficiency. Opponents are converting 63.4% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns, creating a perfect runway for Henry’s early-game usage. particularly amidst Baltimore's passing game struggles.

With Baltimore’s offense struggling to find consistency, Henry remains the clear focal point and most reliable scoring option. Paired with an elite matchup, our model places him firmly inside the top first-touchdown probabilities for the week.

Derrick Henry First TD odds: +450

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Colts vs. Seahawks
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Lumen Field

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to be one of the most reliable first-touchdown targets on the board, earning yet another spot after scoring five times in his past five, including two multi-touchdown outings.

At 13%, JSN is the highest-projected wide receiver this week and sits just outside the overall top five, which is about as high as we've seen for a wideout this season.

While he's known for making big plays, he's heavily used in short-yardage situations, converting five touchdowns on 13 red-zone targets, while the Cardinals have allowed touchdowns on 60% of red-zone looks.

Volume, efficiency, and matchup all align for another early score form the OPOY favorite.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD odds: +450

4. Saquon Barkley (Eagles)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Raiders vs. Eagles
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

In the Eagles' latest loss, RB Saquon Barkley was the lone bright spot for Philadelphia, showing flashes of his vintage form and breaking a 52-yard touchdown sprint, the Eagles' lone TD in that game.

Now he draws a perfectly timed spot with a 13% first touchdown probability against the Raiders, who are tied for second-most rushing touchdowns allowed this season with 18. Since Week 9, Vegas has surrendered 1.2 rushing TDs per game to running backs while allowing more than 118 yards on the ground.

If the Eagles are going to reassert control and inject life into their offense, feeding Barkley early and often is the way to establish an early lead against a Raiders team trotting out Kenny Pickett under center, further limiting the threat of Las Vegas scoring first.

Saquon Barkley First TD odds: +400

5. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bills vs. Patriots
• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

Patriots rookie RB TreVeyeon Henderson headlines the marquee Bills–Patriots matchup, and the numbers point to a strong first-touchdown case.

Buffalo has been one of the most generous rushing touchdown defenses in football all season long, allowing a league-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. Even as their overall yardage numbers have improved, they’ve still given up 1.5 rushing TDs per game since Week 9 with a 59.5% red-zone touchdown rate on the year.

While Henderson has ceded some work to Rhamondre Stevenson upon his return, the rookie remains the higher-projected back in this matchup.

It's worth noting that New England leaned on Stevenson to open drives last week, only to turn to Henderson in the red zone, a trend that matters against a Bills defense vulnerable near the goal line.

At 10%, Henderson trails James Cook by less than half a percent for the highest probability in this game and sits well ahead of other Patriots options, making him the ideal first TD look in this game.

TreVeyon Henderson First TD odds: +650

Dimers' Week 15 First TD Picks and Parlay.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 15 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 15. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.