NFL Week 12 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Joe Burrow returns, Shedeur Sanders' first start

Week 12 in the NFL is officially underway and as always, we're digging into the Dimers Pro NFL predictions to give you the insights you need to bet on all of this week's major storylines and of course, Dimers' latest best bets.

We've got the potential return of Joe Burrow, Shedeur Sanders' first NFL start and several marquee matchups like Colts-Chiefs, Rams-Bucs and Cowboys-Eagles.

Betting on the NFL becomes less spooky when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions.

To help set you up for each upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests, all while utilizing the valuable Dimers Pro data available across Dimers.com.

In addition to our weekly pick 'ems and insights, we have three Dimers model best bets and a touchdown prop with some intriguing value in Bengals-Patriots.

Let's dive into Week 12!

NFL Week 12 Best Bets, Storylines, and Survivor Picks

Joe Burrow looks ready to return vs. Patriots

Joe Burrow logged his first full practices since Week 2 on Wednesday and Thursday, giving Bengals fans real hope he’ll return Sunday—but Zac Taylor isn’t ready to confirm anything.

Meanwhile, Joe Flacco remains limited and questionable, adding more cloudiness to the Bengals’ QB situation.

At 3–7, Cincinnati isn’t mathematically eliminated, but their -8000 playoff odds reflect how slim their runway is. Even so, getting Burrow back would be an obvious boost, especially with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and the offense leaning heavily on the passing game against a Patriots defense that’s stout versus the run but middle-tier vs. WRs.

Whether it’s Flacco or Burrow, this sets up as a strong Tee Higgins spot. Higgins has scored in five of his last six games and steps in as the clear WR1 with Chase sidelined. Our projections are bullish regardless of QB—Flacco sits projected at 249 passing yards, while Burrow is projected for 282 and 279 in his only healthy starts—meaning volume should be there.

New England has leaked production to top wideouts lately (Egbuka 115 yards, Drake London 118 + 3 TDs), and Cincinnati’s run game is unlikely to carry them against the league's best rushing defense.

Barring total offensive collapse or constant pressure on the QB, Higgins should be a focal point and a top prop target.

🏈 Bengals-Patriots full game prediction

Shedeur Sanders makes first NFL start

The Browns are turning to rookie Shedeur Sanders for his first NFL start, amidst months of depth-chart drama and giving him a chance to reset the narrative

It’s a favorable matchup, too: Las Vegas’ defense outside of Maxx Crosby doesn’t intimidate, and this is a much softer landing spot than last week when Sanders played in relief of DIllon Gabriel vs. the Ravens.

Our early projections show modest expectations of 167 passing yards, 18 rushing yards, and an 11% rushing TD chance, which leaves Cleveland’s receivers with low projections across the board.

Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin, and Cedric Tillman all sit in the mid-30s for yardage, while David Njoku carries the highest TD probability at just 21%.

The biggest beneficiary figures to be Quinshon Judkins, who should handle heavy volume again but will run into a Raiders defense allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Browns-Raiders

Chiefs-Colts: Game of the Week?

With real playoff implications on both sides, Colts–Chiefs quietly emerges as one of the most meaningful Week 12 matchups.

Indianapolis enters as +3.5 road underdogs, and while our model has this nearly 50/50 on the spread, Kansas City gets the narrow edge in a projected 27–23 win.

The Colts' offense draws a tough assignment: Jonathan Taylor owns a massive 69% TD probability, but no other Indy player clears 28%. On the other side, the Chiefs’ top skill players all sit at 29% or higher and benefit from facing a Colts pass defense ranked 25th in the league.

The Colts' stout run defense—fifth in the NFL and allowing only eight rushing TDs—could force Kansas City into a pass-heavy script as they have a weak run game, aligning with Patrick Mahomes’ 273-yard projection.

Prop-wise, Taylor carries intriguing value to continue his torrid scoring pace: 33% for two TDs at +240 and even a 3-TD probability of 11.3% at +1100.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Colts Player Prop Projections

NFL Best Bets for Week 12

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and we're looking for a bounce back after both our picks blew early leads last week.

Below, you will find the best edges from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend, with some extra value on that player to score as well.

Bet: Cardinals +2.5 vs. Jaguars

Our model gives the Cardinals a 58% probability (8.2% edge) to cover +2.5, and that jumped to 61% when the line briefly hit +3.

Even without Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona sits firmly in upset territory with a projected 24–23 Jacksonville win and 44% ML value at +140. Jacksonville continues to play to its opponent’s level, narrowly escaping the Raiders and looking flat in a loss to the Davis Mills-led Texans, despite strong wins against San Francisco and Kansas City.

Matchup-wise, Trey McBride is the standout angle. The Jaguars allow the second-most fantasy points to tight ends and the third-most yards, giving McBride projections of 7 receptions, 77.5 yards, a 47% ATD probability and even 13% for two scores.

The emerging backfield split of Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten is a trend to watch, with nearly identical TD equity (Etienne 52%, Tuten 48%) after both backs posted strong games last week.

🏈 Cardinals vs. Jaguars Full Game Predictions

Bet: Cowboys +3 vs. Eagles

The Cowboys +3 sits at a 56.5% probability with a healthy 6.5% edge, and even though this line moved down from +3.5, it’s still plus money at this line.

Dallas' defense looked revitalized on Monday with multiple key returns and the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, making this the strongest version they’ve fielded all year.

The Eagles have slogged through back-to-back 16–9 and 10–7 wins, haven’t shown real offensive upside in weeks, and now must navigate life without Lane Johnson, which could seriously impact their pass protection and short-yardage dominance.

Our projected score of 25–23 falls one point inside the number, and this matchup won't be easy, but Dallas’ passing attack is as good as they come.

CeeDee Lamb (78 yards, 41% ATD) and George Pickens (69 yards, 37% ATD) are difficult assignments for a Philly defense that limits touchdowns, but gives up a good amount of yards.

The Cowboys hung tight in Week 1 despite some costly drops late in the game and now get the rematch at home with momentum.

🏈 Cowboys vs. Eagles full game prediction

Bet: Bengals +6.5 vs. Patriots

Cincinnati +6.5 gets a 57% probability and 5.0% edge.

The Bengals present far more offensive upside than most opponents New England has handled during their eight-game win streak. The Patriots have only covered this number against the Panthers (back in Week 3), Titans, Browns, and Jets, none of which resemble a functional offense. Meanwhile, capable attacks like the Bucs, Bills and even the lackluster Saints all stayed within a touchdown.

Even without Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati still profiles as a team that can stretch New England enough to cover, and they’re our only high-value underdog ML this week with a 32% upset probability at +365 (4.4% edge).

🏈 Bengals vs. Patriots prop picks and best bets

Top Touchdown Target: Tee Higgins vs. Patriots

Tee Higgins has been one of the NFL’s hottest touchdown scorers, finding the end zone in five of his last six games (six total TDs), and now gets elevated WR1 usage with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for a game.

Our fair price for Higgins to score twice is +680, but FanDuel is offering almost +1000, a sizable edge. He’s already a strong play for a single TD (46% ATD, essentially fair at +120), but gets a more notable value to score a pair.

As mentioned above, New England has allowed big WR1 performances in recent weeks, and Higgins’ red-hot form makes him the ideal high-upside prop target. No need to ladder here as we have in the past; the 2+ line stands on its own as one of the best value TD bets of the week.

Week 12 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

We've run into three straight upsets for a tough run, but if you're still in your league and looking for a pick, we'll continue to deliver our data-backed top probabilities for those who are still competing in their Survivor pools.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Seahawks (91%) @ Titans

2️⃣ Ravens (89%) vs. Jets

3️⃣ Lions (80%) vs. Giants

4️⃣ Packers (74%) vs. Vikings

5️⃣ 49ers (73%) vs. Panthers

Editor's pick: Shouldn't get any easier than this - take the Seahawks as our top probability against the one-win Titans.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️ | WK10 Bills ✖️ | WK11 Ravens ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Browns +4 (65%) @ Raiders

2️⃣ Cardinals +2.5 (58%) vs. Jaguars

3️⃣ Bengals +6.5 (58%) vs. Patriots

4️⃣ Cowboys +3 (57%) vs. Eagles

5️⃣ Falcons +2 (55%) @ Saints

Editor's pick: My pick of the week is on a cold streak, so we'll sunset the Editor's Pick and recap the Dimers spreads, which are performing better overall and went 3-2 in Week 11.

Last week's picks: Chargers -3 ✖️, Seahawks +3.5 ✅, Broncos +4 ✅, Browns +7.5 ✅, Bengals +5.5 ✖️

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 12 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 12 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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