NFL Week 11 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Commanders-Dolphins in Madrid, Jameis Winston outlook

We are officially in the second half of the NFL season, and though there are four teams on a bye this weekend, there are still countless NFL Picks, Best Bets, and major NFL betting storylines to dig into, from the NFL international series concluding with Commanders-Dolphins in Spain, Jameis Winston's outlook in his first start with the Giants, and of course, Dimers' latest best bets.

Betting on the NFL becomes less spooky when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions.

To help set you up for each upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests, all while utilizing the valuable Dimers Pro data available across Dimers.com.

In addition to our weekly pick 'ems and insights, we have two Dimers model best bets and a player with touchdown value to score once and twice in Packers-Eagles.

Let's dive into Week 11!

NFL Week 11 Best Bets, Storylines, and Survivor Picks

Commanders-Dolphins wrap up NFL International series

The NFL closes its international slate with a messy matchup: Washington in freefall against a Miami team that isn't very good, but has pulled off some surprising wins.

The Commanders have dropped five straight, their last four by at least 21 points, while the Dolphins have managed two wins in their last three, scoring 30+ in both. The model sits exactly 50/50 on the 2.5-point spread and doesn’t find value on either team winning outright, with a slight lean to the Over on the total of 47.5 at a 52% probability.

Miami has much stronger scoring upside based on player projections with De'Von Achane (57% TD probability, 21% for 2+) and Waddle (43%) dwarfing Washington’s top projected scorer, Debo Samuel leads at 34%.

Zach Ertz is a notable prop target given Miami’s struggles vs. tight ends (71.4 yards allowed per game), while in the ground game, all three Commanders RBs project in a similar 28–36 yard range with no clear lead back.

🏈 Commanders-Dolphins full game prediction

Jameis Winston starts for the Giants

The Giants have elevated Jameis Winston to QB1 with Jaxson Dart in concussion protocol.

Winston’s deep ball, gunslinger style style likely boosts Wan’Dale Robinson, who projects for 14.7 PPR points, 61.9 yards, and a 32% TD chance, the highest on the Giants.

With Winston less likely to run compared to Dart, Tyrone Tracy (44 yards projected) and Devin Singletary (27 yards projected) could see more volume, but have low projections against a Packers front allowing just 91.8 rushing yards per game

Bettors can also target a quirky reverse correlation play backed by the Dimers model: Winston under 237.5 passing yards (231 projected) but over 1.5 TDs (41% probability) at +650.

A fun NFL fact in this game: with the Giants firing Brian Daboll this week, a win as 7-point dogs would be the biggest immediate post-firing upset since the Chiefs stunned....the Packers in 2011 after firing Todd Haley.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Packers-Giants

"Unc Bowl" Part 2: Flacco vs. Rodgers

We get a rematch of the Week 7 TNF shootout, and Joe Flacco may be playing the final two games of his career or auditioning for another job next season with Joe Burrow looking to returning Week 13.

The last meeting featured five total tight end touchdowns, four by the Steelers with all three of Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth finding the end zone, making the TE market one of the most appealing angles this week.

Dimers projections lean toward Jonnu Smith as the top option: 3.1 receptions for 27.8 yards and a 27.0% TD probability, slightly ahead of Pat Freiermuth (2.8, 29.9, 25.7%) and Darnell Washington (2.1, 22.0, 19.8%).

All have similar red-zone looks this season, each scoring at least once from inside the 20, so we could once again be in store for a tight end takeover.

🏈 Steelers-Bengals Player Prop Projections

Two NFC Championship previews?

Lions–Eagles

Detroit’s offense is in full explosion mode again after another 40+ point explosion, seeing them score at least 30 in six games this season.

Dan Campbell’s takeover of offensive playcalling also unlocked Jameson Williams' best game since Week 2, who paced the passing attack last week. However, the Eagles’ pass defense is solid and has allowed just eight TDs, one of the lowest marks in the league. Williams projects for 60 yards and a 32% TD probability.

The question is whether Saquon Barkley is healthy enough to match the moment. After a sluggish return post-bye (saved only by one big receiving play), he’s projected for 74 rushing and 21 receiving yards with a 46% TD probability.

Rams–Seahawks

This matchup showcases two elite offenses against lockdown defenses, with Cooper Kupp returning to face his former team as a storyline that will grab plenty of attention.

Kupp’s projection is modest—40 yards and a 20% TD chance, but his 40+ yards does come at plus money.

The real fireworks should come from Puka Nacua (93.0 yards, 47% TD) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (99.3 yards, 43% TD), both positioned for big plays against middling pass defenses ranked 18th and 19th.

With both teams stout against the run, this looks like a potential shootout with the Dimers model projecting both QBs for over 250 passing yards.

NFL Best Bets for Week 11

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and we're looking for a bounce back after both our picks blew early leads last week.

Below, you will find the current top probability and best edge from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend, with some extra value on that player to score as well.

Bet: Chargers -3 @ Jaguars

With a 56.5% probability and a 6% edge, the Chargers -3 is the Dimers model's best edge on a spread this week.

Their offensive line remains one of the league’s worst with every starter grades bottom-five at his position, but the Jaguars are an even bigger concern after blowing a 17–0 lead to the Davis Mills-led Texans.

Despite some roadblocks this season, the Chargers defense quietly limits opponents to 0.9 passing TDs and one of the lowest passing yard totals per game, a tough setup for Trevor Lawrence and it couldn't be more opposite for Jacksonville, who allow 2.3 passing TDs per game, the second-worst mark in the league.

Beyond the cover, Chargers passing/receiving props could be a highly profitable betting angle in this game.

🏈 Chargers vs. Jaguars Full Game Predictions

Bet: Broncos +4 vs. Chiefs

Denver +4 carries a 56.5% probability with a 3.2% edge, and the value has held through the week, first featured on Tuesday's episode of The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

This projects as a lower-scoring defensive battle with both units ranking top-five in points allowed and with a total of 44.5, our model finds no value with a 50/50 split.

Kansas City’s run game faces a challenge, with Kareem Hunt (46 yards) the top-projected rusher with Isiah Pacheco out once again, and Denver's elite passing defense should allow them to control the pace of the game.

For Denver, RJ Harvey steps into his first real RB1 workload, projected with 50 rushing yards, 19 receiving yards, and a 41% TD chance

Rashee Rice is the top scoring threat overall at 77 yards and 42%, but the Broncos allow fewer than one passing TD per game—one of only three teams with such a mark in the NFL—so bettors should be cautious about overpaying on KC touchdowns.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Broncos full game prediction

Top Touchdown Target: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Eagles

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is once again a prime TD ladder target after last week’s three-score eruption.

He’s now scored multiple TDs in three different games, and Dan Campbell continues force-feeding him near the goal line with 41 total touches inside the 20. The Eagles are tough against the run but still allow nearly one rushing TD per game and rank 27th in red-zone defense versus running backs.

Given Detroit’s ability to scheme Gibbs into space and Philly’s struggles inside the 20, Gibbs gets not only value to score a touchdown, but with upside for another multi-TD performance.

🏈 Full game preview for Lions vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football

Week 11 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

We've run into three straight upsets for a tough run, but if you're still in your league and looking for a pick, we'll continue to deliver our data-backed top probabilities for those who are still competing in their Survivor pools.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Ravens (78%) @ Browns

2️⃣ Packers (75%) @ Giants

3️⃣ Texans (72%) @ Titans

4️⃣ Bills (69%) vs. Buccaneers

5️⃣ Steelers (67%) vs. Bengals

Editor's pick: Adhering to Survivor rules where we only pick a team once per season, we have two options - the Steelers and Ravens. Let's back the Ravens as our top probability after beating Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️ | WK10 Bills ✖️

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Chargers -3 (57%) @ Jaguars

2️⃣ Seahawks +3.5 (57%) @ Rams

3️⃣ Broncos +4 (57%) vs. Chiefs

4️⃣ Browns +7.5 (56%) vs. Ravens

5️⃣ Bengals +5.5 (54%) @ Steelers

Editor's pick: As discussed on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, I love the Chargers play this week and it's our top bet.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️| WK6 Falcons +5 ✅ | WK7 Panthers -1.5 ✅ | WK8 Cowboys +3.5 ✖️ | WK9 Cowboys -2.5 ✖️ | WK10 Browns -1.5 ✖️

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 11 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 11 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.