NFL Thanksgiving Day Touchdown Picks: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Thursday

It's the annual NFL Thanksgiving Day slate!

Betting on first touchdown scorers in NFL games each week is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, our Week 13 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

Before the bulk of Week 13 of the NFL season this Sunday, we have a three-game Thanksgiving Day lineup of games, featuring the Lions-Packers, Cowboys-Chiefs and Ravens-Bengals on Thursday, November 27.

As always, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers and analyzed matchups while we compare the data with red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

Like we do every week for NFL Sunday, we've compiled a mini version of our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up of three first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities for the Thanksgiving Day slate.

And don't worry - we'll have our usual Sunday picks later this week, too!

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Thanksgiving Day (November 27, 2025)

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

Each one of them projects as a top three option in their respective game.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Packers vs. Lions
• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field

First up on Thanksgiving is Lions vs. Packers and we're looking for Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs to score the first TD of the day.

Gibbs is coming off a career day with three touchdowns and over 250 total yards, and he's had three games with at least two touchdowns in his past six. He'll face a Packers defense that's been very good this year, but has allowed a pair of 2 TD games to RBs in the past four weeks.

Unsurprisingly, Gibbs gets a big value to score a pair of touchdowns this week, according to the Dimers model and naturally, the easiest way to score twice is to score early.

He's the third-most likely player to score first in Week 13 based on the Dimers projections and the highest on Thursday.

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD odds: +425

2. Rashee Rice (Chiefs)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Chiefs vs. Cowboys
• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
• Time: 4:30 PM ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

We move to Cowboys vs. Chiefs where we're looking at the second-most likely player to score first in this game, Chiefs WR Rashee Rice.

Since making his season debut in Week 7, Rice has scored four times, somehow being held out of the endzone this past week despite an 8-catch, 141-yard outing.

He gets the Cowboys this week, who have been improving on defense, but that's mostly been against the run. Still very vulnerable against the pass, they just allowed a 60-yard, 1 TD first quarter to AJ Brown on Sunday.

Rice gets the fourth-highest probability for a WR to score first in all of Week 13 and second highest overall in this game at 10.4%.

Rashee Rice First TD odds: +600

3. Mark Andrews (Ravens)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bengals vs. Ravens
• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

In the final game of the night, we turn to Ravens TE Mark Andrews to open up the scoring with his fifth TD in the past five weeks.

He's Lamar Jackson's favorite target, scoring 54 career touchdowns on the receiving end of Jackson's throws, and he's reliable in the red zone, where he's turned 10 targets into 5 catches and 4 scores this season, a top mark among tight ends.

The Bengals sport the worst defense vs. the position to date, allowing 1.2 TDs on over 10 targets per game to tight ends, and just saw Hunter Henry pace the Patriots on Sunday with 7 catches for 110 yards and a TD.

Baltimore projects to win this game and Andrews gets an 8.2% probability to score first, second on the Ravens behind only Derrick Henry.

Mark Andrews First TD odds: +700

First Touchdown Scorers: NFL Thanksgiving Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay.

By combining these three players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the three players score the first TD in their respective games.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 13 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 13 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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