...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Why this prop bet in Packers at Lions is a candidate for 'best value of the year' on Thanksgiving 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
The real feast this year isn't on the dining room table—it’s an NFL player prop bet on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Thanksgiving football is a tradition unlike any other. The food is heavy, the family is loud, and the NFL slate is loaded. But for smart bettors, the real feast this year isn't on the dining room table—it’s a high value player prop bet on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook for the Week 13 clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
This bet "should" be +195, but we've found it at +330!
Buried in their NFL props markets is a wager that statistically savvy bettors dream about.
To the casual observer, betting on NFL prop bets might feel risky. But when you peel back the layers using advanced data modeling, this isn't a gamble; it's a calculated strike on a mispriced line.
There's 10.7% edge hiding in plain sight. A bet that should, realistically, be +195. Yet the generous folks at America's favorite online sports betting site is giving us odds of +330.
The most critical aspect of sports betting isn't predicting the future; it's identifying when the sportsbooks have calculated the probability incorrectly.
That is exactly what is happening here.
How we found this high value NFL prop bet
This bet perfectly illustrates why a Dimers Pro subscription is essential for anyone—casual fan or serious handicapper—who wants to take betting seriously.
Most bettors look at a line like "+330" and make a decision based on gut feeling, but Dimers Pro removes the guesswork.
It constantly scans the markets, comparing thousands of lines against proprietary data models to unearth discrepancies just like this one.
Opportunities where +EV (Positive Expected Value) is hiding in plain sight happen every week, but without the right tools, they remain invisible.
Don't just watch the Lions and Packers this Thanksgiving, capitalize on the math. With the odds heavily stacked in your favor, this is the high-value play to anchor your holiday card.
Black Friday promo code: 3 months of Pro for the price of 1
That's right! Sign up using our Black Friday promo code and you'll get three months of Dimers Pro for the price of just one.
- Your price: Just $8.33/month for the first three months ($24.99 total)
- Your promo code: Use promo code PROFRIDAY at checkout to unlock this incredible deal.
Don't miss this limited-time opportunity to bet smarter across every major sport for a fraction of the cost.
If you're already a Dimers Pro, then head to the bottom of this article to claim your special offer.
Best NFL prop bet Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day
While the public is agonizing over the point spread or the Over/Under, Dimers Pro users are locking in a 10.7% edge (+330 odds rather than +195) on a player prop that even the eye of the most astute judge would probably overlook.
Jahmyr Gibbs to score 2+ touchdowns (+330)
At +330 odds, the implied probability of Gibbs scoring two or more touchdowns is roughly 23.3%.
Essentially, FanDuel (click here to join) is saying this event will happen less than one out of every four times.
However, the Dimers Pro predictive models tell a drastically different story.
After simulating this matchup thousands of times, the data pins the true probability of this occurring at a staggering 33.9%.
The gap between what the sportsbook thinks will happen (23.3%) and what the data says will happen (33.9%) creates a massive 10.7% edge.
In the world of sports betting, finding a double-digit edge on a star player in a primetime game is almost unheard of. This is arguably one of the highest-value plays of the entire 2025 season.
The Context: Gibbs is Nuclear Right Now
The data makes the mathematical case, but the recent on-field performance makes the emotional case. If you watched the Lions in Week 12, you witnessed a running back operating at the absolute peak of his powers.
Gibbs is coming off perhaps the single best performance of the 2025 season. In an overtime thriller, he racked up a mind-bending 55.4 fantasy points (PPR). He was the engine of the offense, demanding a robust 26 touches, including 11 catches, proving he is game-script proof. Whether the Lions are leading or trailing, Gibbs is on the field.
His explosiveness is currently unmatched. In Week 12, he tallied 264 total yards and three touchdowns. These weren't cheap, goal-line plunges, either. He ripped off a 49-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter when the Lions were trailing late, and then sealed the game with a spectacular 69-yard touchdown run in overtime.
When a player with that kind of big-play ability gets 20+ touches a game, asking for two touchdowns isn't a stretch—it’s almost an expectation.
BET: Jahmyr Gibbs to score 2+ touchdowns (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Black Friday offer for existing Pro subscribers
When it comes to our Black Friday offer, we certainly haven't forgotten about our loyal existing Dimers Pro members.
To celebrate Black Friday, we've prepared an exclusive, limited-time offer just for you: the opportunity to upgrade your current subscription to a full year of Dimers Pro for just $99.99 - that's $100 off the regular price of $199.99.
Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to lock in your subscription at a massive discount.
Check your inbox right now for your personalized upgrade link and details!
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure