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NFL Player Props: Why the data says to ladder these props on De'Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Rico Dowdle
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Our predictive NFL model has identified three player props on NFL Sunday with good value and "ladder play" potential thanks to our data-backed simulations.
NFL Sunday in Week 16 is upon us and we're getting down to the wire with just three weeks to go in the regular season.
As we've done the past two weeks, finding success in Week 14 with James Cook, we're using the Dimers data and season-long matchup insights to find players with NFL props that set up ladder opportunities this Sunday, December 21.
While our featured ladder target of Derrick Henry didn't hit his marks in Week 15, two other players (Aaron Jones and Kenneth Gainwell) hit the marks we talked about on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and this week, we're highlighting all three players in our sights.
How we found these high-value Week 16 NFL player props
Our Dimers Pro subscription service is an essential tool for serious NFL bettors. The first step to finding these betting opportunities lies in our NFL Player Projections Hub, a Dimers Pro exclusive that gives us a detailed breakdown of our model's projections for every player's performance in the upcoming week.
Our projections are powered by tens of thousands of simulations for every NFL game, designed to surface +EV opportunities that rarely jump off the page at first glance. These inefficiencies show up every week — but without tools like Dimers Pro, they’re easy to miss.
Three player props to ladder on NFL Sunday
Ladder target: Rico Dowdle (Panthers) over 14.5 receiving yards
The first player we're looking at is Panthers RB Rico Dowdle vs. the Buccaneers in a clash with big NFC South implications, as the winner will take first place.
Dowdle draws a projection of 17.1 receiving yards from our model, which would mark his fourth time in his past five games where he hits this line.
Dowdle's best receiving game this season (56 yards) came against the Cowboys, who allow the second-most receiving yards to backs this season. On Sunday, he faces the Bucs, who allow the most at 52.8 yards per game out of the backfield, nearly 10 full yards over Dallas. They've given up performances of 82, 47, 36, and 66 in their past five games.
He's seen 3+ targets in four of his past six games and with our projection of 2.4 receptions, should see that volume or higher again.
Ladder target: De'Von Achane (Dolphins) over 28.5 receiving yards
Our next target gets the highest line of the three, but could be in line for the biggest day.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane gets a projection of 30.4 receiving yards from our model when he faces the Bengals on Sunday, who allow 45.6 receiving yards per game to RBs this season (third-most in the NFL) and 43.5 over the past six weeks.
Achane has cleared this in seven games, smashing it in four of those with 45+ yards. He's one of the most-targeted RBs in the league with 79 looks this year and has racked up 450, fourth-most for a running back this season.
Rookie QB Quinn Ewers makes his first start and the gameplan should see their best player involved frequently and as a safety net as the rookie adjusts to the speed of the NFL.
Ladder target: Omarion Hampton (Chargers) over 11.5 receiving yards
The third ladder target begins with the lowest line of them all on Chargers RB Omarion Hampton, who gets a projection of 14.4 receiving yards from the Dimers model.
Hampton was on the shelf for a number of weeks after going down with injury just as he was breaking out. He's only seen three targets in his first two games back, but before he went down, he recorded 7, 5 and 6 targets in three straight games, featuring long catches of 22, 19 and 12 yards - clearing this line on catch in those games.
Three games removed from his injury absence, Hampton should see his workload ramped up, particularly against a Cowboys defense that's allowed 46.9 receiving yards to RBs this year, and 44.2 per game since Week 9.
Just last week, Aaron Jones recorded 15+ receiving yards in the 1st quarter alone, setting up Hampton for a ladder chance.
Why ladder these props
Each of these bets presents a valuable betting opportunity on its own or in a +567 three-leg parlay based on the Dimers data, matchup and historical trends.
But bettors looking to take some calculated risks for potentially larger payouts can apply a ladder strategy to each bet, taking each of these players to record higher alternate receiving lines at increasingly long plus-money odds.
Here's an example of how to approach the Rico Dowdle ladder in Week 16, with this strategy applicable to each player's respective props, beginning with the lines discussed above.
These dollar amounts are for reference only as an example of how to stagger a wager across the full ladder - please remember to gamble responsibly and bet only what suits your strategy.
| Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards | Odds | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 | -114 | $25 | $46.92 |
| 25+ | +207 | $15 | $46.05 |
| 40+ | +630 | $5 | $36.50 |
| 50+ | +1180 | $5 | $64.40 |
Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season
- NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 16 matchup
- NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
- NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
- Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
- Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
Responsible Gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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