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NFL player props today: Week 18's best props include Kenny Pickett [1/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get NFL player props today with projections for Sunday's Week 18 games.
Dimers' NFL props are live for January 04, 2026, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Kenny Pickett, Jaret Patterson and Tyjae Spears.
Our NFL player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Saints vs. Falcons and Lions vs. Bears, to surface the best NFL player prop bets across the market.
List of NFL prop picks for Week 18
Sourced from 110+ total props today, below are the top ten NFL player props for January 4, ranked by edge.
Kenny Pickett under 30.5 passing attempts (-132)
- Edge: 36.4%
- Probability: 93.3%
- Game: Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)
Our model has found value on Las Vegas' Kenny Pickett under 30.5 passing attempts. A probability of 93.3% gives this play an edge of 36.4% at -132 odds.
Kenny Pickett under 19.5 passing completions (-152)
- Edge: 32.6%
- Probability: 92.9%
- Projection: 13.9
- Game: Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)
Kenny Pickett’s passing completions prop shows a 32.6% edge at -152 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 13.9 passing completions on the under 19.5 line.
Jaret Patterson anytime touchdown scorer (+1600)
- Edge: 27.1%
- Probability: 33.0%
- Game: Chargers vs. Broncos (4:25PM ET)
The data highlights value on Jaret Patterson anytime touchdown scorer, with simulations showing a 33.0% probability and a 27.1% edge at +1600.
Kenny Pickett under 169.5 passing yards (-114)
- Edge: 22.5%
- Probability: 75.8%
- Projection: 136.3
- Game: Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)
Our model projects Kenny Pickett to record 136.3 passing yards today, creating an edge of 22.5% on the under 169.5 line at -114 odds.
Tyjae Spears over 4.5 rushing attempts (-135)
- Edge: 16.6%
- Probability: 74.0%
- Game: Titans vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Tyjae Spears over 4.5 rushing attempts for Tennessee, showing an edge of 16.6% at -135 odds.
Puka Nacua under 101.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Edge: 16.3%
- Probability: 69.8%
- Projection: 83.5
- Game: Cardinals vs. Rams (4:25PM ET)
Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop shows an edge of 16.3% at -115 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 83.5 today.
Bhayshul Tuten under 5.5 rushing attempts (+105)
- Edge: 15.0%
- Probability: 63.8%
- Game: Titans vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Bhayshul Tuten under 5.5 rushing attempts for Jacksonville, with a 63.8% probability and a 15.0% edge at +105 odds.
Clayton Tune over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
- Edge: 13.9%
- Probability: 68.5%
- Game: Packers vs. Vikings (1:00PM ET)
The data shows value on Clayton Tune over 0.5 passing touchdowns, supported by a 68.5% probability at -120 odds and an edge of 13.9%.
RJ Harvey under 16.5 rushing attempts (-135)
- Edge: 13.5%
- Probability: 71.0%
- Game: Chargers vs. Broncos (4:25PM ET)
A 13.5% edge on the under 0.5 rushing attempts line makes RJ Harvey a value play in Chargers vs. Broncos, supported by a 71.0% probability at -135 odds.
Tyler Allgeier under 4.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Edge: 13.3%
- Probability: 66.8%
- Projection: 3.6
- Game: Saints vs. Falcons (1:00PM ET)
Simulations project Tyler Allgeier for 3.6 receiving yards here, creating a 13.3% edge on the under 4.5 line at -115 odds.
NFL player prop summary: Week 18, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 12:20AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Kenny Pickett under 30.5 passing attempts | -132 @ FanDuel | 36.4% | 93.3% |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Kenny Pickett under 19.5 passing completions | -152 @ FanDuel | 32.6% | 92.9% |
| Chargers vs. Broncos | Jaret Patterson anytime touchdown scorer | +1600 @ DraftKings | 22.5% | 75.8% |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Kenny Pickett under 169.5 passing yards | -114 @ FanDuel | 22.5% | 75.8% |
| Titans vs. Jaguars | Tyjae Spears over 4.5 rushing attempts | -135 @ BetMGM | 16.6% | 74.0% |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | Puka Nacua under 101.5 receiving yards | -115 @ BetMGM | 16.3% | 69.8% |
| Titans vs. Jaguars | Bhayshul Tuten under 5.5 rushing attempts | +105 @ BetMGM | 15.0% | 63.8% |
| Packers vs. Vikings | Clayton Tune over 0.5 passing touchdowns | -120 @ BetMGM | 13.9% | 68.5% |
| Chargers vs. Broncos | RJ Harvey under 0.5 rushing attempts | -135 @ BetMGM | 13.5% | 71.0% |
| Saints vs. Falcons | Tyler Allgeier under 4.5 receiving yards | -115 @ BetMGM | 13.3% | 66.8% |
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Conclusion
For January 4, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Kenny Pickett, Jaret Patterson and Tyjae Spears. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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