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NFL player props today: Wild Card Saturday's best props include Brian Robinson Jr. [1/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get NFL player props today with projections for Saturday's Week 20 games.
Dimers' NFL props are live for January 17, 2026, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Brian Robinson Jr., Christian McCaffrey and Luke Farrell.
Our NFL player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Bills vs. Broncos and 49ers vs. Seahawks, to surface the best NFL player prop bets across the market.
List of NFL prop picks for Divisional Round
Sourced from 40+ total props today, below are the top ten NFL player props for January 17, ranked by edge.
Brian Robinson Jr. over 2.5 rushing attempts (+140)
- Edge: 21.1%
- Probability: 62.7%
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
Our model has found value on San Francisco's Brian Robinson Jr. over 2.5 rushing attempts. A probability of 62.7% gives this play an edge of 21.1% at +140 odds.
Christian McCaffrey under 6.5 receptions (+100)
- Edge: 14.0%
- Probability: 64.0%
- Projection: 5.8
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
Christian McCaffrey’s receptions prop shows a 14.0% edge at +100 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 5.8 receptions on the under 6.5 line.
Brian Robinson Jr. over 0.5 receptions (+210)
- Edge: 12.6%
- Probability: 44.8%
- Projection: 0.6
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
The data highlights value on Brian Robinson Jr. over 0.5 receptions, with simulations showing a 44.8% probability and a 12.6% edge at +210.
Luke Farrell over 0.5 receptions (+135)
- Edge: 10.1%
- Probability: 52.6%
- Projection: 0.7
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
Our model projects Luke Farrell to record 0.7 receptions today, creating an edge of 10.1% on the over 0.5 line at +135 odds.
Zach Charbonnet under 12.5 rushing attempts (-140)
- Edge: 10.0%
- Probability: 68.3%
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Zach Charbonnet under 12.5 rushing attempts for Seattle, showing an edge of 10.0% at -140 odds.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey over 0.5 receptions (-120)
- Edge: 10.0%
- Probability: 64.5%
- Projection: 1.0
- Game: Bills vs. Broncos (4:30PM ET)
Lil'Jordan Humphrey’s receptions prop shows an edge of 10.0% at -120 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.0 today.
Jaleel McLaughlin over 0.5 receptions (+140)
- Edge: 9.8%
- Probability: 51.4%
- Projection: 0.7
- Game: Bills vs. Broncos (4:30PM ET)
Our model projects Jaleel McLaughlin for 0.7 receptions for Denver, creating an edge of 9.8% on over 0.5 at +140 odds.
Ty Johnson under 10.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Edge: 9.2%
- Probability: 61.5%
- Projection: 10.6
- Game: Bills vs. Broncos (4:30PM ET)
Our expert modelling projects Ty Johnson for 10.6 rushing yards, creating value on the under 10.5 line at -110 odds and a 9.2% edge.
Josh Allen under 8.5 rushing attempts (-118)
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 63.2%
- Game: Bills vs. Broncos (4:30PM ET)
A 9.1% edge on the under 10.5 rushing attempts line makes Josh Allen a value play in Bills vs. Broncos, supported by a 63.2% probability at -118 odds.
Brock Purdy under 23.5 passing completions (-124)
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 63.7%
- Projection: 22.0
- Game: 49ers vs. Seahawks (8:00PM ET)
Simulations project Brock Purdy for 22.0 passing completions here, creating a 8.3% edge on the under 23.5 line at -124 odds.
NFL player prop summary: Divisional Round, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 2:51AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Brian Robinson Jr. over 2.5 rushing attempts | +140 @ BetMGM | 21.1% | 62.7% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Christian McCaffrey under 6.5 receptions | +100 @ BetMGM | 14.0% | 64.0% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Brian Robinson Jr. over 0.5 receptions | +210 @ BetMGM | 10.1% | 52.6% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Luke Farrell over 0.5 receptions | +135 @ BetMGM | 10.1% | 52.6% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Zach Charbonnet under 12.5 rushing attempts | -140 @ BetMGM | 10.0% | 68.3% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Lil'Jordan Humphrey over 0.5 receptions | -120 @ BetMGM | 10.0% | 64.5% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Jaleel McLaughlin over 0.5 receptions | +140 @ BetMGM | 9.8% | 51.4% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Ty Johnson under 10.5 rushing yards | -110 @ BetMGM | 9.2% | 61.5% |
| Bills vs. Broncos | Josh Allen under 10.5 rushing attempts | -118 @ BetMGM | 9.1% | 63.2% |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | Brock Purdy under 23.5 passing completions | -124 @ DraftKings | 8.3% | 63.7% |
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Conclusion
For January 17, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Brian Robinson Jr., Christian McCaffrey and Luke Farrell. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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