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NFL player props today: Week 18's best props include Christian McCaffrey [1/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get NFL player props today with projections for Saturday's Week 18 games.
Dimers' NFL props are live for January 03, 2026, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Bryce Young.
Our NFL player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Seahawks vs. 49ers and Panthers vs. Buccaneers, to surface the best NFL player prop bets across the market.
List of NFL prop bets for Week 18 (Saturday)
Below are the top ten NFL player props for January 3, ranked by edge.
Christian McCaffrey under 5.5 receptions (+110)
- Edge: 14.2%
- Probability: 61.8%
- Projection: 5.0
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
Our model has flagged value on San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey under 5.5 receptions. A probability of 61.8% gives this play an edge of 14.2% at +110 odds.
George Kittle under 5.5 receptions (-110)
- Edge: 7.6%
- Probability: 60.0%
- Projection: 5.1
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
George Kittle’s receptions prop shows a 7.6% edge at -110 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 5.1 receptions on the under 5.5 line.
Bryce Young under 19.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Edge: 7.5%
- Probability: 60.7%
- Projection: 18.9
- Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers (4:30PM ET)
The data highlights value on Bryce Young under 19.5 rushing yards, with simulations showing a 60.7% probability and a 7.5% edge at -114.
Brian Robinson Jr. under 16.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 59.6%
- Projection: 17.0
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
Our model projects Brian Robinson Jr. to record 17.0 rushing yards today, creating an edge of 6.1% on the under 16.5 line at -115 odds.
Sam Darnold under 21.5 passing completions (-132)
- Edge: 5.9%
- Probability: 62.8%
- Projection: 20.2
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Sam Darnold under 21.5 passing completions for Seattle, showing an edge of 5.9% at -132 odds.
Bucky Irving under 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 57.8%
- Projection: 63.9
- Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers (4:30PM ET)
Bucky Irving’s rushing yards prop shows an edge of 5.4% at -110 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 63.9 today.
Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions (-124)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 60.4%
- Projection: 4.1
- Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers (4:30PM ET)
Our model projects Mike Evans for 4.1 receptions for Tampa Bay, creating an edge of 5.0% on under 4.5 at -124 odds.
Bryce Young under 3.5 rushing attempts (+125)
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 49.0%
- Game: Panthers vs. Buccaneers (4:30PM ET)
The data shows value on Bryce Young under 3.5 rushing attempts, supported by a 49.0% probability at +125 odds and an edge of 4.6%.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 7.5 receptions (-134)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 61.4%
- Projection: 6.9
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
A 4.1% edge on the under 3.5 receptions line makes Jaxon Smith-Njigba a value play in Seahawks vs. 49ers, with our model projecting him for 6.9 receptions at -134 odds.
Zach Charbonnet under 11.5 rushing attempts (-140)
- Edge: 4.1%
- Probability: 62.4%
- Game: Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:00PM ET)
Simulations show value on Zach Charbonnet under 11.5 rushing attempts here, with a 62.4% probability and 4.1% edge at -140 odds.
NFL player prop summary: Week 18, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 5:11AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Christian McCaffrey under 5.5 receptions | +110 @ BetMGM | 14.2% | 61.8% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | George Kittle under 5.5 receptions | -110 @ BetMGM | 7.6% | 60.0% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Bryce Young under 19.5 rushing yards | -114 @ FanDuel | 6.1% | 59.6% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Brian Robinson Jr. under 16.5 rushing yards | -115 @ DraftKings | 6.1% | 59.6% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Sam Darnold under 21.5 passing completions | -132 @ DraftKings | 5.9% | 62.8% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Bucky Irving under 66.5 rushing yards | -110 @ BetMGM | 5.4% | 57.8% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions | -124 @ DraftKings | 5.0% | 60.4% |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Bryce Young under 3.5 rushing attempts | +125 @ BetMGM | 4.6% | 49.0% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 3.5 receptions | -134 @ DraftKings | 4.1% | 61.4% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Zach Charbonnet under 11.5 rushing attempts | -140 @ BetMGM | 4.1% | 62.4% |
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Conclusion
For January 3, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Bryce Young. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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