NFL picks against the spread for Week 1, 2025

As part of our extensive NFL betting coverage, Dimers.com provides a weekly list of NFL picks against the spread, and for Week 1, we've harnessed our advanced predictive analytics model to deliver NFL spread picks for the 14 games being played today and on Monday. 

Sunday’s action is highlighted by divisional and primetime matchups, including Buccaneers vs. Falcons at 1:00 PM ET, Lions vs. Packers at 4:25 PM ET, and Ravens vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football, with the week concluding with Vikings vs. Bears on Monday Night Football.

With professional NFL picks against spread for every game on the Week 1 NFL slate, our expert predictive model is here to guide you through another exciting week of football.

Below, you'll find a detailed list of each team's chances of covering the spread on Sunday and Monday, based on over 10K simulations of each game. These NFL predictions for Week 1 show the probability of each team covering the spread in their respective games.

While the picks in this article are based purely on probabilities, it's crucial for bettors to note that the best betting value may come from better odds available elsewhere.

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For more NFL betting coverage, check out our NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

NFL spread picks: Week 1, 2025

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)

The Falcons are listed as +1.5 underdogs against the Buccaneers this week.

Our model projects the Buccaneers as the more likely team to cover, with a probability of 53%, compared to 47% for the Falcons.

Pick ATS: Buccaneers -1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets (+2.5)

Our simulations give the Steelers a 56% chance of covering the +2.5 spread on the road against the Jets, who have a 44% chance.

Pick ATS: Steelers -2.5

For those interested in betting on the spread, the oddsmakers have listed the Jets at -105 to cover and the Steelers at -104.

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

At home against the Dolphins, the Colts are 1.5-point favorites.

Our model projects that the sportsbooks have nailed this one, with a 50-50 chance of either team covering the spread.

However, when searching for a pick, the Colts get a slight lean.

Pick ATS: Colts -1.5

Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)

Our model projects a 59% chance of the Panthers covering the spread against the Jaguars, who have a 41% chance.

The line is set with the Jaguars as 3.5-point favorites at home.

Pick ATS: Panthers +3.5

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders (-6)

In this game at Northwest Stadium, the Commanders are 6-point favorites at home.

According to our model, the Commanders have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the Giants have a 46% chance.

Pick ATS: Commanders -6

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints (+6.5)

Our model predicts the Saints to cover the spread in this game, giving them a 57% chance against the Cardinals.

Pick ATS: Saints +6.5

For those looking to place a bet, the line is set at Cardinals -6.5, with the odds at -110 for the Saints to cover at home and -104 for the Cardinals to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

Our simulations suggest a 50% chance for either of the Browns or Bengals covering the spread, with the model's slight lean going to the Browns.

Pick ATS: Browns +5.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots (-2.5)

The Patriots enter this matchup as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders.

According to our simulations, both the Patriots and Raiders have a 50% chance of covering, with the Patriots slightly favored for those in against the spread pick contests.

Pick ATS: Patriots -2.5

For those interested in betting on this line, the Patriots are listed at -110 to cover, with the Raiders at -105.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)

With a probability of 53%, our pick to cover in this game is the 49ers -1.5. The Seahawks, their opponent, have a projected 47% chance of covering the spread.

Pick ATS: 49ers -1.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos (-8.5)

Both the Broncos and Titans have a 50% chance of covering the spread on Sunday afternoon.

However, our pick is the Broncos, who covered the spread in slightly more of the 10,000 simulations we ran for the game at Empower Field at Mile High.

Pick ATS: Broncos -8.5

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-1.5)

We've run our powerful NFL model 10,000 times for this week’s Lions-Broncos clash, with our model unable to split the two teams at the line.

With the sportsbooks nailing the 1.5-point gap between the teams, our pick is the Broncos to cover, who have a slightly higher probability.

Pick ATS: Packers -1.5

Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Our simulations indicate a 58% chance of the Texans covering the spread in this matchup, while the Rams have a 42% chance.

This makes the Texans a strong pick against the spread for the Week 1 game at SoFi Stadium.

Pick ATS: Texans +3

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (+1)

We are picking the Ravens to cover the spread in their game against the Bills this week.

According to our trusted NFL model, there is a 55% chance that the road team will cover the -1 line, while the Bills have a 45% chance on Sunday Night Football.

Pick ATS: Ravens -1

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (+1.5)

The final game of Week 1 features the Bears taking on the Vikings at Soldier Field.

We are picking the Vikings to cover the spread, with a projected 55% chance of covering, while the Bears have a 45% likelihood of covering the spread.

Pick ATS: Vikings -1.5

Looking for winner picks? Check out our Week 1 NFL picks straight up.

Complete list of NFL Week 1 picks against the spread

• Buccaneers -1.5 (53%)
• Steelers -2.5 (56%)
• Colts -1.5 (slight lean)
• Panthers +3.5 (59%)
• Commanders -6 (54%)
• Saints +6.5 (57%)
• Browns +5.5 (slight lean)
• Patriots -2.5 (slight lean)
• 49ers -1.5 (53%)
• Broncos -8.5 (slight lean)
• Packers -1.5 (58%)
• Texans +3 (58%)
• Ravens -1 (55%)
• Vikings -1.5 (55%)

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Week 1 NFL picks against the spread

The NFL Week 1 picks against the spread in this article are accurate at the time of publication and may be subject to change.

Football fans across the country rely on our NFL expert picks against the spread because Dimers.com is the best website for NFL predictions.

If you decide to use our NFL spread picks for betting, it's important to gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities on this page are subject to change.

Conclusion

Our NFL Week 1 picks against the spread feature 14 matchups on Sunday and Monday, highlighted by Buccaneers vs. Falcons, Lions vs. Packers, Ravens vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football, and Vikings vs. Bears on Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers (-1.5), Packers (-1.5), and Ravens (-1) headline our top probabilities to cover.

For more Week 1 betting tools, explore our NFL odds, NFL prop bets, NFL trends and NFL futures.