Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [4/21/2026]

MLB action continues on Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET as the New York Yankees square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Connelly Early (1-0, 2.29 ERA) will be on the bump for the Red Sox, pitting him against Luis Gil (0-1, 7.00 ERA) for the Yankees.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Yankees.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.

Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 53% chance of defeating the Yankees.

According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds [4/21/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: