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Jets vs. Bills prediction: Buffalo favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills will face the New York Jets in NFL Week 18 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, starting at 4:25 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Bills as the most likely winner of the Jets vs. Bills game.
This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Jets vs. Bills prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Jets-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Jets and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bills a 91% chance of defeating the Jets in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 26-13.
According to our model, the Jets (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 39.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Jets vs. Bills odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jets | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-110) | -13.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +590 | -800 |
| Total | o39.5 (-105) | u39.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jets vs. Bills picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jets +13.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Bills | -800 |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -105 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills to win.
Jets vs. Bills TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Jets vs. Bills?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, James Cook is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Jets vs. Bills.
Our projections give Cook a 51.9% chance of scoring a TD at Highmark Stadium, while the running back is a 13.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New York Jets
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kene Nwangwu (RB) | 30.3% |
| Khalil Herbert (RB) | 25.5% |
| Adonai Mitchell (WR) | 21.3% |
| John Metchie (WR) | 18.0% |
| Isaiah Williams (WR) | 17.4% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 51.9% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 27.9% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 26.5% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 21.7% |
| Ray Davis (RB) | 19.5% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New York Jets
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kene Nwangwu (RB) | 6.5% |
| Khalil Herbert (RB) | 5.3% |
| Adonai Mitchell (WR) | 4.3% |
| John Metchie (WR) | 3.6% |
| Isaiah Williams (WR) | 3.5% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| James Cook (RB) | 13.4% |
| Josh Allen (QB) | 6.0% |
| Khalil Shakir (WR) | 5.6% |
| Dawson Knox (TE) | 4.5% |
| Ray Davis (RB) | 4.0% |
Jets vs Bills player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jets and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jets' Brady Cook is projected to have a quiet game with 159 passing yards, while the Bills' Mitchell Trubisky is expected to throw for just 179 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Brady Cook (NYJ) | 159 |
| Mitchell Trubisky (BUF) | 179 |
Jets rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 43 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 38 |
| Brady Cook | 15 |
Bills rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 87 |
| Ty Johnson | 14 |
| Ray Davis | 10 |
Jets receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell | 46 |
| John Metchie | 31 |
| Isaiah Williams | 29 |
| Stone Smartt | 15 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 14 |
Bills receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 27 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 26 |
| Joshua Palmer | 18 |
| Keon Coleman | 17 |
| Gabe Davis | 16 |
Jets vs. Bills game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 game between the Bills and Jets at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.
- Who: New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jets vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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