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Saints vs. Falcons prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win in NFL Week 18 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Atlanta Falcons will face the New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 18 action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Falcons as the most likely winner of the Saints vs. Falcons game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Saints vs. Falcons prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Saints-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Saints and Falcons 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Falcons a 63% chance of beating the Saints in Week 18 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 23-20.
According to our model, the Saints (+4.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 18 straight up picks.
Saints vs. Falcons odds
We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Saints | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-110) | -4.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +188 | -198 |
| Total | o43.5 (-110) | u43.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Saints vs. Falcons picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints +4.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Saints | +188 |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 |
According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Saints +4.5 at the spread.
Saints vs. Falcons TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Saints vs. Falcons?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Saints vs. Falcons.
Our projections give Robinson a 55.3% chance of scoring a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the running back is a 15.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New Orleans Saints
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Audric Estime (RB) | 37.0% |
| Juwan Johnson (TE) | 31.9% |
| Taysom Hill (TE) | 25.0% |
| Kevin Austin (WR) | 24.8% |
| Dante Pettis (WR) | 22.4% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 55.3% |
| Drake London (WR) | 38.9% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 35.9% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 32.1% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 17.3% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New Orleans Saints
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Audric Estime (RB) | 8.6% |
| Juwan Johnson (TE) | 7.2% |
| Taysom Hill (TE) | 5.4% |
| Kevin Austin (WR) | 5.3% |
| Dante Pettis (WR) | 4.7% |
Atlanta Falcons
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (RB) | 15.7% |
| Drake London (WR) | 9.6% |
| Tyler Allgeier (RB) | 8.7% |
| Kyle Pitts (TE) | 7.6% |
| Darnell Mooney (WR) | 3.7% |
Saints vs Falcons player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Saints and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 18 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Saints' Tyler Shough is projected for 234 passing yards, while the Falcons' Kirk Cousins is expected to throw for 212 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 234 |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 212 |
Saints rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Audric Estime | 56 |
| Tyler Shough | 20 |
| Taysom Hill | 17 |
Falcons rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 88 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 36 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 |
Saints receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 59 |
| Kevin Austin | 47 |
| Dante Pettis | 41 |
| Ronnie Bell | 18 |
| Audric Estime | 18 |
Falcons receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake London | 60 |
| Kyle Pitts | 47 |
| Bijan Robinson | 39 |
| Darnell Mooney | 30 |
| David Sills | 23 |
Saints vs. Falcons game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 18 action between the Falcons and Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Falcons, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Saints in Week 18 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Saints vs. Falcons insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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