Patriots vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 10, 2025

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 10 action at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model predicts the Buccaneers as the most likely winner of the Patriots vs. Buccaneers game.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Patriots vs. Bucs prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Patriots-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Patriots and Buccaneers 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Buccaneers a 58% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Buccaneers winning 25-22.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Patriots and Buccaneers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Patriots	Buccaneers
Spread	+2.5 (-110)	-2.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+120	-142
Total	o48.5 (-104)	u48.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Patriots +2.5	-110
Moneyline	Buccaneers	-142
Total	Under 48.5	-105

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 48.5 total points.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Buccaneers?

According to our model, Rachaad White is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Buccaneers.

Our projections give White a 51.4% chance of getting in for six at Raymond James Stadium, while the running back is a 12.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

Player	Anytime TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	36.0%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	33.9%
Hunter Henry (TE)	31.7%
Terrell Jennings (RB)	25.3%
DeMario Douglas (WR)	23.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rachaad White (RB)	51.4%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	43.1%
Tez Johnson (WR)	29.5%
Cade Otton (TE)	26.7%
Sean Tucker (RB)	22.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

Player	First TD Probability
TreVeyon Henderson (RB)	7.5%
Stefon Diggs (WR)	7.0%
Hunter Henry (TE)	6.4%
Terrell Jennings (RB)	4.9%
DeMario Douglas (WR)	4.5%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	First TD Probability
Rachaad White (RB)	12.7%
Emeka Egbuka (WR)	10.0%
Tez Johnson (WR)	6.2%
Cade Otton (TE)	5.5%
Sean Tucker (RB)	4.5%

Patriots vs Buccaneers player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 249 passing yards. The Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is expected to throw for 254 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Drake Maye (NE)	249
Baker Mayfield (TB)	254

Patriots rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
TreVeyon Henderson	46
Terrell Jennings	32
Drake Maye	31

Buccaneers rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Rachaad White	53
Sean Tucker	28
Baker Mayfield	19

Patriots receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs	61
DeMario Douglas	41
Hunter Henry	39
Mack Hollins	32
TreVeyon Henderson	27

Buccaneers receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Emeka Egbuka	75
Tez Johnson	50
Cade Otton	45
Sterling Shepard	37
Rachaad White	25

Patriots vs. Bucs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 10 matchup between the Buccaneers and Patriots at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Buccaneers, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 10 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Buccaneers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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