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Patriots vs. Jets prediction: New England favored to win in NFL Week 17 [2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New England Patriots vs New York Jets predictions for NFL Sunday.
The New York Jets will take on the favored New England Patriots in NFL Week 17 action at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Patriots vs. Jets game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Patriots vs. Jets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Patriots-Jets predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Jets 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Patriots a 90% chance of defeating the Jets in Week 17 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 27-14.
According to our model, the Jets (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 17 straight up picks.
Patriots vs. Jets odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -13.5 (-110) | +13.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -900 | +750 |
| Total | o42.5 (-112) | u42.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Patriots vs. Jets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jets +13.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Patriots | -900 |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -106 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets +13.5 at the spread.
Patriots vs. Jets TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Jets?
According to our model, TreVeyon Henderson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Jets.
Our projections give Henderson a 47.2% chance of scoring a TD at MetLife Stadium, while the running back is an 11.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 47.2% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 45.7% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 36.5% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 35.5% |
| Kyle Williams (WR) | 27.3% |
New York Jets
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (RB) | 34.3% |
| Adonai Mitchell (WR) | 21.8% |
| John Metchie (WR) | 19.3% |
| Isaiah Davis (RB) | 14.9% |
| Isaiah Williams (WR) | 14.3% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 11.6% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 11.1% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 8.2% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 7.9% |
| Kyle Williams (WR) | 5.8% |
New York Jets
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (RB) | 8.2% |
| Adonai Mitchell (WR) | 4.8% |
| John Metchie (WR) | 4.2% |
| Isaiah Davis (RB) | 3.1% |
| Isaiah Williams (WR) | 3.0% |
Patriots vs Jets player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Jets. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 17 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 258 passing yards. The Jets' Brady Cook is expected to throw for just 174 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | 258 |
| Brady Cook (NYJ) | 174 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 47 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 41 |
| Drake Maye | 21 |
Jets rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 65 |
| Isaiah Davis | 19 |
| Brady Cook | 15 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 68 |
| Hunter Henry | 50 |
| Kyle Williams | 48 |
| DeMario Douglas | 28 |
| Austin Hooper | 21 |
Jets receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell | 45 |
| John Metchie | 35 |
| Isaiah Williams | 28 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 18 |
| Breece Hall | 15 |
Patriots vs. Jets game-day updates and essential details
The NFL Week 17 game between the Jets and Patriots at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.
- Who: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict the Patriots, with a 90% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 17 of the NFL season.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Jets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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